MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for December Wheat(MGE) as of Jan 01, 2007
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years	21	24	26	26	26	26	26	26	26	26	26
Closed Higher	10	9	12	14	11	7	13	13	12	13	10
Exceeded High	8	8	10	10	7	3	9	9	10	9	5
Scenario Percentage	80%	89%	83%	71%	64%	43%	69%	69%	83%	69%	50%
Avg Max Increase	6.09%	11.48%	9.20%	13.51%	15.35%	15.31%	12.23%	11.28%	9.02%	6.51%	4.48%
Max Increase	12.35%	35.17%	31.40%	46.52%	31.28%	31.93%	36.88%	19.13%	30.27%	23.47%	7.42%
Avg Days To Max Increase	17	14	11	16	18	21	22	17	19	13	14
Avg Max Decline	-1.45%	-2.85%	-0.89%	-1.17%	-2.78%	-2.00%	-3.31%	-1.50%	-1.33%	-2.47%	-2.10%
Max Decline	-3.46%	-8.55%	-3.83%	-6.73%	-7.76%	-6.81%	-9.68%	-3.94%	-3.76%	-5.17%	-5.06%
Avg Days to Max Decline	9	10	8	4	8	5	9	13	6	11	2
2006 Contract Condition	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes				Yes	Yes
Action	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes				Not Yet	Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years	21	24	26	26	26	26	26	26	26	26	26
Closed Lower	10	14	14	12	15	19	13	13	13	13	16
Penetrated Low	7	10	12	10	15	16	12	10	11	11	11
Scenario Percentage	70%	71%	86%	83%	100%	84%	92%	77%	85%	85%	69%
Avg Max Decline	3.99%	4.25%	4.29%	4.95%	7.45%	8.58%	6.74%	5.69%	5.90%	5.82%	11.03%
Max Decline	7.08%	10.98%	8.43%	9.41%	16.20%	20.77%	12.67%	13.97%	10.91%	18.25%	34.05%
Avg Days To Max Decline	19	16	18	18	19	16	14	17	20	14	13
Avg Max Increase	-1.20%	-1.84%	-2.32%	-3.73%	-2.54%	-2.38%	-1.82%	-1.73%	-2.23%	-2.26%	-2.09%
Max Increase	-1.83%	-4.25%	-13.20%	-12.23%	-8.34%	-7.13%	-6.39%	-5.36%	-5.20%	-5.23%	-7.06%
Avg Days to Max Increase	11	12	11	10	9	6	5	6	16	11	5
2006 Contract Condition			Yes				Yes	Yes	Yes
Action			No				Yes	Yes	No
High	415.00	450.00	449.50	454.00	501.00	499.75	536.00	497.00	479.50	538.00	524.75
Low	383.50	404.00	406.50	418.50	431.00	445.50	478.00	447.00	438.00	465.00	487.50
Close/Last	409.25	444.50	421.50	432.50	483.00	499.00	494.75	473.25	468.75	495.25	509.25