MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for September Wheat(MGE) as of Jan 01, 2010
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years	22	26	28	29	29	29	29	29	29	29	29
Closed Higher	10	9	15	13	13	13	16	12	11	13	14
Exceeded High	5	8	14	12	10	10	12	9	5	9	9
Scenario Percentage	50%	89%	93%	92%	77%	77%	75%	75%	45%	69%	64%
Avg Max Increase	10.82%	8.58%	10.35%	9.13%	10.65%	11.92%	15.89%	16.11%	15.48%	17.95%	9.96%
Max Increase	26.61%	38.26%	64.97%	40.65%	38.68%	34.87%	49.21%	34.00%	33.33%	37.67%	22.54%
Avg Days To Max Increase	15	18	18	15	18	13	14	16	21	17	13
Avg Max Decline	-1.62%	-1.69%	-2.22%	-1.33%	-3.85%	-1.59%	-1.51%	-2.23%	-2.66%	-2.26%	-0.12%
Max Decline	-5.28%	-5.94%	-6.88%	-3.51%	-12.01%	-4.22%	-6.56%	-6.60%	-8.00%	-7.17%	-2.15%
Avg Days to Max Decline	4	16	9	9	12	12	4	6	4	6	5
2009 Contract Condition			Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes
Action			Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years	22	26	28	29	29	29	29	29	29	29	29
Closed Lower	11	17	13	15	16	16	11	17	18	16	15
Penetrated Low	9	14	8	11	13	14	9	15	16	14	9
Scenario Percentage	82%	82%	62%	73%	81%	88%	82%	88%	89%	88%	60%
Avg Max Decline	7.07%	4.50%	4.93%	4.82%	3.87%	5.42%	5.01%	9.06%	9.52%	7.92%	15.95%
Max Decline	16.88%	11.46%	12.20%	10.76%	11.37%	15.59%	9.59%	18.66%	20.50%	23.06%	47.15%
Avg Days To Max Decline	17	16	21	15	17	18	23	21	16	11	13
Avg Max Increase	-1.91%	-0.67%	-2.37%	-1.43%	-2.99%	-2.91%	-4.85%	-2.30%	-2.63%	-3.66%	-1.34%
Max Increase	-7.33%	-2.88%	-3.79%	-3.12%	-11.68%	-13.00%	-12.75%	-6.27%	-7.89%	-14.16%	-7.51%
Avg Days to Max Increase	11	11	12	11	13	10	10	9	6	9	5
2009 Contract Condition	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes				Yes	Yes	Yes
Action	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes				Yes	Yes	Yes
High	782.75	688.50	683.75	707.25	656.25	651.00	669.25	793.00	802.25	641.75	631.50
Low	603.50	609.00	560.00	634.25	594.00	582.50	608.75	650.00	625.50	588.00	507.50
Close/Last	641.50	631.00	674.25	652.75	602.25	633.00	649.25	775.50	633.75	605.00	521.25