MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for September Wheat(MGE) as of Jan 01, 2009
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		21	25	27	28	28	28	28	28	28	28	28
Closed Higher		10	9	14	13	13	12	15	11	11	13	14
Exceeded High		5	8	13	12	10	9	11	8	5	9	8
Scenario Percentage		50%	89%	93%	92%	77%	75%	73%	73%	45%	69%	57%
Avg Max Increase		10.82%	8.58%	10.77%	9.13%	10.65%	10.43%	15.19%	17.70%	15.48%	15.95%	8.45%
Max Increase		26.61%	38.26%	64.97%	40.65%	38.68%	34.87%	49.21%	34.00%	33.33%	37.67%	19.80%
Avg Days To Max Increase		15	18	19	15	18	11	16	18	21	13	8
Avg Max Decline		-1.62%	-1.69%	-2.25%	-1.33%	-3.85%	-1.34%	-1.66%	-2.48%	-2.66%	-2.26%	0.01%
Max Decline		-5.28%	-5.94%	-6.88%	-3.51%	-12.01%	-4.22%	-6.56%	-6.60%	-8.00%	-7.17%	-1.70%
Avg Days to Max Decline		4	16	10	9	12	11	4	7	4	6	4
2008 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes				Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No				No

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		21	25	27	28	28	28	28	28	28	28	28
Closed Lower		10	16	13	14	15	16	11	17	17	15	14
Penetrated Low		8	13	8	10	12	14	9	15	15	13	4
Scenario Percentage		80%	81%	62%	71%	80%	88%	82%	88%	88%	87%	29%
Avg Max Decline		6.36%	3.98%	4.93%	4.23%	3.92%	5.42%	5.01%	9.06%	8.83%	6.13%	4.84%
Max Decline		16.88%	11.46%	12.20%	7.61%	11.37%	15.59%	9.59%	18.66%	20.50%	11.46%	10.48%
Avg Days To Max Decline		18	17	21	17	18	18	23	21	15	12	6
Avg Max Increase		-1.23%	-0.89%	-2.37%	-1.52%	-3.20%	-2.91%	-4.85%	-2.30%	-2.72%	-3.54%	0.46%
Max Increase		-3.12%	-2.88%	-3.79%	-3.12%	-11.68%	-13.00%	-12.75%	-6.27%	-7.89%	-14.16%	-0.49%
Avg Days to Max Increase		10	12	12	11	14	10	10	9	6	7	3
2008 Contract Condition							Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
Action							Yes	Yes	No		Yes	Yes
High	700.00	710.00	808.00	885.00	1095.00	1402.25	1300.00	1090.00	920.75	1037.00	956.00	993.75
Low	590.00	654.00	682.00	785.00	850.00	995.00	980.00	865.75	843.00	847.00	853.25	830.00
Close/Last	696.00	699.00	792.00	850.00	997.00	1130.00	998.75	880.00	873.00	950.50	870.50	861.00