MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for July Wheat(MGE) as of Jan 01, 2010
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years	20	26	26	28	29	29	29	29	29	29	29
Closed Higher	12	14	16	9	12	14	11	14	16	12	14
Exceeded High	10	14	7	6	10	12	9	11	10	9	8
Scenario Percentage	83%	100%	44%	67%	83%	86%	82%	79%	62%	75%	57%
Avg Max Increase	9.28%	5.32%	4.86%	10.12%	14.19%	9.73%	11.32%	12.03%	17.54%	18.02%	8.51%
Max Increase	25.32%	9.71%	14.37%	37.75%	74.25%	48.31%	39.92%	36.23%	49.92%	35.01%	17.61%
Avg Days To Max Increase	12	16	19	20	16	14	16	16	16	17	16
Avg Max Decline	-0.30%	-1.18%	-1.52%	-1.16%	-2.10%	-1.84%	-4.42%	-1.63%	-1.91%	-3.21%	-1.39%
Max Decline	-3.31%	-8.32%	-4.90%	-1.86%	-7.43%	-4.32%	-11.49%	-4.39%	-7.81%	-11.09%	-8.42%
Avg Days to Max Decline	8	9	12	8	15	9	13	11	5	5	4
2009 Contract Condition					Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes
Action					Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years	20	26	26	28	29	29	29	29	29	29	29
Closed Lower	8	12	10	19	17	15	18	15	13	17	15
Penetrated Low	6	9	9	17	12	13	14	13	9	15	12
Scenario Percentage	75%	75%	90%	89%	71%	87%	78%	87%	69%	88%	80%
Avg Max Decline	11.46%	8.02%	5.31%	5.15%	5.06%	4.25%	4.09%	5.07%	4.95%	7.98%	10.09%
Max Decline	33.20%	23.64%	12.46%	13.80%	12.76%	10.04%	10.92%	11.20%	11.03%	13.20%	42.21%
Avg Days To Max Decline	18	23	16	17	19	13	19	17	18	19	13
Avg Max Increase	0.25%	-1.17%	-2.98%	-1.10%	-1.32%	-1.37%	-3.00%	-2.41%	-2.98%	-2.28%	-1.58%
Max Increase	-0.78%	-3.74%	-7.13%	-4.71%	-4.73%	-3.24%	-11.25%	-11.63%	-5.91%	-6.46%	-5.50%
Avg Days to Max Increase	3	10	11	11	9	8	12	9	6	10	6
2009 Contract Condition	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes				Yes
Action	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes				Yes
High	1004.50	880.00	778.75	683.50	677.00	699.00	652.00	645.75	669.25	793.25	797.25
Low	865.00	775.00	594.50	602.00	558.50	627.25	589.50	580.25	605.75	655.50	627.00
Close/Last	890.00	778.50	638.00	623.00	664.25	645.00	600.00	631.75	658.25	772.00	636.00