MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for July Wheat(MGE) as of Jan 01, 2008
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years	18	24	24	26	27	27	27	27	27	27	27
Closed Higher	11	13	16	8	10	13	10	13	15	10	13
Exceeded High	9	13	7	5	8	11	9	10	9	7	8
Scenario Percentage	82%	100%	44%	62%	80%	85%	90%	77%	60%	70%	62%
Avg Max Increase	7.50%	4.98%	4.86%	4.59%	7.80%	6.23%	11.32%	10.68%	17.14%	20.40%	8.51%
Max Increase	15.87%	9.62%	14.37%	9.48%	22.73%	12.27%	39.92%	36.23%	49.92%	35.01%	17.61%
Avg Days To Max Increase	13	15	19	18	16	13	16	14	18	19	16
Avg Max Decline	-0.52%	-0.64%	-1.52%	-1.02%	-2.38%	-1.80%	-4.42%	-1.38%	-2.08%	-2.51%	-1.39%
Max Decline	-3.31%	-2.60%	-4.90%	-1.81%	-7.43%	-4.32%	-11.49%	-4.39%	-7.81%	-6.83%	-8.42%
Avg Days to Max Decline	9	7	12	9	18	9	13	11	5	6	4
2007 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	No	No			Yes		Yes	Yes	Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years	18	24	24	26	27	27	27	27	27	27	27
Closed Lower	7	11	8	18	17	14	17	14	12	17	14
Penetrated Low	5	8	7	16	12	12	13	12	8	15	11
Scenario Percentage	71%	73%	88%	89%	71%	86%	76%	86%	67%	88%	79%
Avg Max Decline	7.12%	6.07%	4.72%	4.83%	5.06%	3.76%	4.16%	4.56%	5.43%	7.98%	10.06%
Max Decline	12.65%	10.34%	6.80%	13.80%	12.76%	9.59%	10.92%	9.01%	11.03%	13.20%	42.21%
Avg Days To Max Decline	16	23	20	17	19	14	20	18	21	19	14
Avg Max Increase	0.08%	-1.32%	-2.80%	-1.31%	-1.32%	-1.39%	-3.20%	-1.64%	-3.19%	-2.28%	-1.75%
Max Increase	-0.78%	-3.74%	-7.02%	-4.71%	-4.73%	-3.24%	-11.25%	-5.29%	-5.91%	-6.46%	-5.50%
Avg Days to Max Increase	3	11	12	11	9	8	13	10	7	10	7
2007 Contract Condition	Yes				Yes	Yes		Yes
Action	Yes				Yes	No		Yes
High	507.00	497.00	535.00	534.00	532.00	524.00	539.00	530.50	545.75	540.00	649.00
Low	463.00	457.00	486.00	495.00	502.00	484.75	501.00	486.00	468.00	495.00	522.00
Close/Last	494.00	495.00	505.00	532.00	520.00	515.00	528.75	492.25	529.50	537.25	623.00