MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for May Wheat(MGE) as of Jan 01, 2010
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years	19	23	26	28	28	28	29	29	29	29	29
Closed Higher	7	12	13	14	16	8	12	14	11	15	17
Exceeded High	5	9	8	14	8	4	8	10	9	11	12
Scenario Percentage	71%	75%	62%	100%	50%	50%	67%	71%	82%	73%	71%
Avg Max Increase	10.95%	14.07%	11.35%	5.17%	5.60%	13.48%	18.65%	11.84%	11.73%	10.35%	6.20%
Max Increase	27.42%	34.13%	26.67%	11.91%	18.43%	36.92%	96.92%	59.15%	41.86%	44.24%	15.23%
Avg Days To Max Increase	19	24	11	15	14	16	18	18	17	12	12
Avg Max Decline	-1.67%	-2.73%	-0.03%	-1.30%	-1.23%	-3.62%	-3.04%	-1.75%	-3.73%	-1.72%	-1.16%
Max Decline	-4.28%	-7.22%	-3.46%	-11.15%	-4.90%	-7.05%	-6.98%	-4.50%	-10.77%	-4.48%	-6.52%
Avg Days to Max Decline	5	11	7	7	6	17	14	10	17	9	3
2009 Contract Condition	Yes						Yes			Yes	Yes
Action	No						Yes			Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years	19	23	26	28	28	28	29	29	29	29	29
Closed Lower	11	11	13	14	11	20	17	15	18	13	12
Penetrated Low	10	9	8	11	10	17	12	14	14	9	6
Scenario Percentage	91%	82%	62%	79%	91%	85%	71%	93%	78%	69%	50%
Avg Max Decline	7.91%	7.29%	9.69%	7.46%	6.93%	5.76%	4.38%	4.50%	4.07%	4.16%	16.48%
Max Decline	15.07%	14.27%	33.84%	23.85%	22.27%	14.12%	11.33%	10.96%	9.20%	9.67%	62.21%
Avg Days To Max Decline	16	16	17	23	15	18	19	17	16	10	9
Avg Max Increase	-1.64%	-2.31%	-0.57%	-1.48%	-2.61%	-1.30%	-1.90%	-1.45%	-3.44%	-2.98%	-3.41%
Max Increase	-6.61%	-12.82%	-1.86%	-4.51%	-7.32%	-4.04%	-5.27%	-3.06%	-11.06%	-16.83%	-11.40%
Avg Days to Max Increase	7	7	5	10	8	12	7	10	12	6	4
2009 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
High	1055.00	988.00	1012.00	875.00	772.25	678.50	670.00	715.50	657.75	648.50	694.00
Low	875.00	889.25	865.50	769.00	587.50	594.25	552.25	625.00	596.25	587.50	617.75
Close/Last	988.00	897.00	888.00	771.50	632.25	615.25	658.25	646.00	606.25	639.25	681.50