MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for May Wheat(MGE) as of Jan 01, 2009
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		18	22	25	27	27	27	28	28	28	28	28
Closed Higher		6	12	13	14	16	8	11	14	11	14	16
Exceeded High		5	9	8	14	8	4	7	10	9	10	10
Scenario Percentage		83%	75%	62%	100%	50%	50%	64%	71%	82%	71%	63%
Avg Max Increase		10.95%	14.07%	11.35%	5.17%	5.60%	13.48%	20.07%	11.84%	11.73%	9.89%	5.89%
Max Increase		27.42%	34.13%	26.67%	11.91%	18.43%	36.92%	96.92%	59.15%	41.86%	44.24%	15.23%
Avg Days To Max Increase		19	24	11	15	14	16	19	18	17	9	7
Avg Max Decline		-1.67%	-2.73%	-0.03%	-1.30%	-1.23%	-3.62%	-3.20%	-1.75%	-3.73%	-1.56%	-1.18%
Max Decline		-4.28%	-7.22%	-3.46%	-11.15%	-4.90%	-7.05%	-6.98%	-4.50%	-10.77%	-4.48%	-6.52%
Avg Days to Max Decline		5	11	7	7	6	17	15	10	17	8	1
2008 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	No

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		18	22	25	27	27	27	28	28	28	28	28
Closed Lower		11	10	12	13	10	19	17	14	17	13	12
Penetrated Low		10	8	7	10	9	16	12	13	13	9	4
Scenario Percentage		91%	80%	58%	77%	90%	84%	71%	93%	76%	69%	33%
Avg Max Decline		7.91%	6.42%	6.24%	5.83%	6.29%	5.48%	4.38%	4.15%	4.14%	4.16%	3.47%
Max Decline		15.07%	11.74%	14.58%	10.10%	22.27%	14.12%	11.33%	10.96%	9.20%	9.67%	6.25%
Avg Days To Max Decline		16	14	17	23	16	19	19	18	17	10	8
Avg Max Increase		-1.64%	-1.00%	-0.86%	-1.62%	-2.09%	-1.39%	-1.90%	-1.42%	-3.66%	-2.98%	-0.89%
Max Increase		-6.61%	-4.63%	-1.86%	-4.51%	-3.69%	-4.04%	-5.27%	-3.06%	-11.06%	-16.83%	-2.36%
Avg Days to Max Increase		7	6	5	11	8	13	7	10	13	6	2
2008 Contract Condition						Yes					Yes	Yes
Action						Yes					Yes	Not Yet
High	556.00	639.50	674.00	715.00	874.50	893.00	938.00	1066.25	1260.00	1981.00	1679.75	1395.00
Low	523.00	556.00	616.00	645.00	714.00	798.25	777.00	899.75	988.00	1245.75	1194.00	1110.00
Close/Last	556.00	636.00	652.00	705.00	874.50	809.00	920.25	1006.00	1244.75	1619.75	1194.00	1167.00