MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for May Wheat(MGE) as of Jan 01, 2008
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years	17	21	24	26	26	26	27	27	27	27	27
Closed Higher	5	11	12	13	16	7	10	13	10	14	16
Exceeded High	4	8	7	13	8	3	6	9	9	10	11
Scenario Percentage	80%	73%	58%	100%	50%	43%	60%	69%	90%	71%	69%
Avg Max Increase	10.58%	11.56%	9.17%	5.01%	5.60%	5.67%	7.26%	6.58%	11.73%	10.49%	6.58%
Max Increase	27.42%	30.05%	17.35%	11.91%	18.43%	10.63%	20.16%	10.96%	41.86%	44.24%	15.23%
Avg Days To Max Increase	17	23	12	14	14	11	18	17	17	13	12
Avg Max Decline	-1.30%	-2.94%	-0.22%	-0.54%	-1.23%	-4.08%	-3.44%	-1.95%	-3.73%	-1.56%	-1.34%
Max Decline	-4.28%	-7.22%	-3.46%	-2.33%	-4.90%	-7.05%	-6.98%	-4.50%	-10.77%	-4.48%	-6.52%
Avg Days to Max Decline	6	11	7	5	6	21	16	11	17	8	3
2007 Contract Condition	Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes			Yes		Yes
Action	Yes	No			No	No			Yes		Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years	17	21	24	26	26	26	27	27	27	27	27
Closed Lower	11	10	12	13	9	19	17	14	17	12	11
Penetrated Low	10	8	7	10	8	16	12	13	13	8	5
Scenario Percentage	91%	80%	58%	77%	89%	84%	71%	93%	76%	67%	45%
Avg Max Decline	7.91%	6.42%	6.24%	5.83%	6.59%	5.48%	4.38%	4.15%	4.14%	3.81%	7.33%
Max Decline	15.07%	11.74%	14.58%	10.10%	22.27%	14.12%	11.33%	10.96%	9.20%	9.67%	22.78%
Avg Days To Max Decline	16	14	17	23	17	19	19	18	17	8	10
Avg Max Increase	-1.64%	-1.00%	-0.86%	-1.62%	-2.15%	-1.39%	-1.90%	-1.42%	-3.66%	-1.25%	-1.81%
Max Increase	-6.61%	-4.63%	-1.86%	-4.51%	-3.69%	-4.04%	-5.27%	-3.06%	-11.06%	-5.80%	-5.52%
Avg Days to Max Increase	7	6	5	11	8	13	7	10	13	5	2
2007 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes		Yes
Action			Yes	No			Yes	No		Yes
High	500.00	525.00	505.50	496.00	553.00	540.00	537.75	521.00	534.00	521.00	553.00
Low	461.50	490.00	462.00	457.00	485.00	510.00	502.25	478.00	494.50	480.00	464.00
Close/Last	500.00	500.50	488.00	487.00	512.50	536.00	526.00	508.00	520.00	485.00	541.00