MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for March Wheat(MGE) as of Dec 31, 2010
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		23	28	29	29	29	29	29	29	30	30	30
Closed Higher		12	13	10	13	14	13	15	11	11	17	14
Exceeded High		9	9	7	9	11	12	6	7	7	14	7
Scenario Percentage		75%	69%	70%	69%	79%	92%	40%	64%	64%	82%	50%
Avg Max Increase		16.86%	13.53%	9.42%	15.88%	11.12%	6.22%	9.60%	13.43%	26.67%	11.15%	3.84%
Max Increase		43.47%	31.11%	30.45%	40.62%	29.31%	13.70%	21.28%	45.91%	141.25%	82.08%	5.89%
Avg Days To Max Increase		17	16	16	24	12	15	15	22	17	9	7
Avg Max Decline		-0.68%	-2.10%	-2.66%	-2.93%	-1.32%	-1.83%	-1.61%	-3.40%	-3.17%	-1.55%	-1.21%
Max Decline		-5.66%	-7.29%	-6.30%	-8.23%	-3.79%	-12.60%	-4.90%	-7.77%	-5.78%	-3.90%	-4.68%
Avg Days to Max Decline		5	6	5	8	11	7	6	12	13	9	3
2010 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes					Yes	Yes			Yes
Action		Yes	Yes					Yes	No			Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		23	28	29	29	29	29	29	29	30	30	30
Closed Lower		11	15	19	16	15	16	14	18	18	13	16
Penetrated Low		9	14	17	13	12	13	13	15	12	12	6
Scenario Percentage		82%	93%	89%	81%	80%	81%	93%	83%	67%	92%	38%
Avg Max Decline		4.38%	6.96%	8.19%	8.38%	8.76%	6.98%	6.13%	5.65%	5.13%	4.43%	2.51%
Max Decline		9.31%	14.08%	18.94%	22.39%	34.31%	23.73%	21.11%	15.50%	13.08%	13.02%	4.15%
Avg Days To Max Decline		20	19	16	16	18	21	16	19	17	14	6
Avg Max Increase		-3.98%	-1.88%	-1.63%	-2.50%	-1.01%	-1.73%	-2.45%	-1.78%	-2.55%	-2.28%	-1.09%
Max Increase		-7.14%	-5.54%	-6.35%	-13.58%	-4.60%	-5.79%	-6.38%	-5.15%	-6.63%	-4.89%	-3.50%
Avg Days to Max Increase		15	9	5	6	5	11	7	12	13	11	2
2010 Contract Condition				Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes
Action				Yes	Yes	Yes	No			Yes	Yes
High	671.25	683.00	803.75	822.50	664.50	659.75	550.00	599.25	603.75	597.25	580.25	525.25
Low	605.25	627.75	662.00	650.75	617.00	541.25	493.00	493.00	525.75	523.00	500.00	496.75
Close/Last	648.75	661.00	789.75	658.75	635.25	556.00	505.75	528.00	587.75	545.00	500.75	516.75