MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for March Wheat(MGE) as of Jan 01, 2010
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years	22	27	28	28	28	28	28	28	29	29	29
Closed Higher	11	12	10	13	14	13	14	10	11	17	13
Exceeded High	8	8	7	9	11	12	5	7	7	15	8
Scenario Percentage	73%	67%	70%	69%	79%	92%	36%	70%	64%	88%	62%
Avg Max Increase	15.91%	14.70%	9.42%	15.88%	11.12%	6.22%	8.66%	13.43%	26.67%	11.13%	4.15%
Max Increase	43.47%	31.11%	30.45%	40.62%	29.31%	13.70%	21.28%	45.91%	141.25%	82.08%	5.89%
Avg Days To Max Increase	19	18	16	24	12	15	15	22	17	12	10
Avg Max Decline	-0.79%	-2.52%	-2.66%	-2.93%	-1.32%	-1.83%	-1.85%	-3.40%	-3.17%	-1.83%	-1.27%
Max Decline	-5.66%	-7.29%	-6.30%	-8.23%	-3.79%	-12.60%	-4.90%	-7.77%	-5.78%	-5.73%	-4.68%
Avg Days to Max Decline	5	7	5	8	11	7	7	12	13	9	3
2009 Contract Condition			Yes						Yes
Action			No						Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years	22	27	28	28	28	28	28	28	29	29	29
Closed Lower	11	15	18	15	14	15	14	18	17	12	16
Penetrated Low	9	14	16	12	11	13	13	15	11	11	9
Scenario Percentage	82%	93%	89%	80%	79%	87%	93%	83%	65%	92%	56%
Avg Max Decline	4.38%	6.96%	7.58%	7.21%	8.52%	6.98%	6.13%	5.65%	4.79%	5.32%	10.14%
Max Decline	9.31%	14.08%	18.94%	15.08%	34.31%	23.73%	21.11%	15.50%	13.08%	13.02%	34.56%
Avg Days To Max Decline	20	19	15	15	19	21	16	19	17	15	20
Avg Max Increase	-3.98%	-1.88%	-1.67%	-2.38%	-1.20%	-1.73%	-2.45%	-1.78%	-2.19%	-2.24%	-3.39%
Max Increase	-7.14%	-5.54%	-6.35%	-13.58%	-4.60%	-5.79%	-6.38%	-5.15%	-6.63%	-4.39%	-9.47%
Avg Days to Max Increase	15	9	6	6	5	11	7	12	13	13	11
2009 Contract Condition	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
Action	Yes	No		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
High	1085.00	933.75	1062.50	990.25	1016.50	877.00	767.75	675.00	671.50	685.75	670.75
Low	886.00	858.00	872.00	884.50	862.00	760.00	581.00	589.00	549.00	624.50	610.00
Close/Last	893.00	874.00	983.00	895.00	884.50	761.75	634.50	610.75	654.75	652.00	626.00