MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for March Wheat(MGE) as of Jan 01, 2009
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		21	26	27	27	27	27	27	27	28	28	28
Closed Higher		11	12	9	13	14	13	14	10	10	17	13
Exceeded High		8	8	7	9	11	12	5	7	6	14	8
Scenario Percentage		73%	67%	78%	69%	79%	92%	36%	70%	60%	82%	62%
Avg Max Increase		15.91%	14.70%	9.42%	15.88%	11.12%	6.22%	8.66%	13.43%	30.33%	11.22%	3.65%
Max Increase		43.47%	31.11%	30.45%	40.62%	29.31%	13.70%	21.28%	45.91%	141.25%	82.08%	5.89%
Avg Days To Max Increase		19	18	16	24	12	15	15	22	19	10	9
Avg Max Decline		-0.79%	-2.52%	-2.66%	-2.93%	-1.32%	-1.83%	-1.85%	-3.40%	-3.33%	-1.55%	-1.27%
Max Decline		-5.66%	-7.29%	-6.30%	-8.23%	-3.79%	-12.60%	-4.90%	-7.77%	-5.78%	-3.90%	-4.68%
Avg Days to Max Decline		5	7	5	8	11	7	7	12	15	9	3
2008 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		21	26	27	27	27	27	27	27	28	28	28
Closed Lower		10	14	18	14	13	14	13	17	17	11	15
Penetrated Low		8	14	16	11	10	12	12	14	11	10	5
Scenario Percentage		80%	100%	89%	79%	77%	86%	92%	82%	65%	91%	33%
Avg Max Decline		4.43%	6.96%	7.58%	6.49%	5.95%	5.58%	5.51%	5.33%	4.79%	4.62%	2.44%
Max Decline		9.31%	14.08%	18.94%	12.69%	15.64%	11.43%	21.11%	15.50%	13.08%	13.02%	4.15%
Avg Days To Max Decline		19	19	15	14	19	20	17	19	17	15	6
Avg Max Increase		-3.91%	-1.88%	-1.67%	-1.37%	-1.40%	-1.81%	-2.13%	-1.92%	-2.19%	-1.96%	-1.44%
Max Increase		-7.14%	-5.54%	-6.35%	-5.81%	-4.60%	-5.79%	-5.47%	-5.15%	-6.63%	-4.39%	-3.50%
Avg Days to Max Increase		16	9	6	5	6	11	7	13	13	10	2
2008 Contract Condition								Yes
Action								Yes
High	547.00	557.00	560.00	657.00	679.00	730.50	918.25	937.50	962.00	1108.75	1373.00	2500.00
Low	521.00	492.50	517.00	553.50	607.00	646.50	724.00	812.25	796.00	922.00	1019.50	1398.00
Close/Last	528.00	548.00	560.00	643.00	653.00	725.00	910.75	839.75	941.00	1036.25	1373.00	1825.00