MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for March Wheat(MGE) as of Jan 01, 2008
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years	20	25	26	26	26	26	26	26	27	27	27
Closed Higher	10	11	8	12	13	12	14	9	9	16	12
Exceeded High	7	7	6	8	10	11	5	6	5	14	8
Scenario Percentage	70%	64%	75%	67%	77%	92%	36%	67%	56%	88%	67%
Avg Max Increase	15.34%	13.76%	8.72%	12.79%	9.30%	6.27%	8.66%	8.02%	8.14%	6.06%	4.15%
Max Increase	43.47%	31.11%	30.45%	36.92%	20.28%	13.70%	21.28%	21.41%	18.25%	13.76%	5.89%
Avg Days To Max Increase	17	17	14	24	14	14	15	21	18	11	10
Avg Max Decline	-0.09%	-2.72%	-2.17%	-3.18%	-1.44%	-0.85%	-1.85%	-3.63%	-3.67%	-2.09%	-1.27%
Max Decline	-1.44%	-7.29%	-6.30%	-8.23%	-3.79%	-2.64%	-4.90%	-7.77%	-5.78%	-5.73%	-4.68%
Avg Days to Max Decline	3	7	6	9	12	4	7	13	16	10	3
2007 Contract Condition	Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes
Action	Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes	No	No			Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years	20	25	26	26	26	26	26	26	27	27	27
Closed Lower	10	14	18	14	13	14	12	17	17	11	15
Penetrated Low	8	14	16	11	10	12	11	14	11	10	8
Scenario Percentage	80%	100%	89%	79%	77%	86%	92%	82%	65%	91%	53%
Avg Max Decline	4.43%	6.96%	7.58%	6.49%	5.95%	5.58%	5.54%	5.33%	4.79%	4.97%	9.05%
Max Decline	9.31%	14.08%	18.94%	12.69%	15.64%	11.43%	21.11%	15.50%	13.08%	13.02%	34.56%
Avg Days To Max Decline	19	19	15	14	19	20	17	19	17	16	19
Avg Max Increase	-3.91%	-1.88%	-1.67%	-1.37%	-1.40%	-1.81%	-2.11%	-1.92%	-2.19%	-2.18%	-3.39%
Max Increase	-7.14%	-5.54%	-6.35%	-5.81%	-4.60%	-5.79%	-5.47%	-5.15%	-6.63%	-4.39%	-9.47%
Avg Days to Max Increase	16	9	6	5	6	11	7	13	13	13	11
2007 Contract Condition				Yes	Yes				Yes	Yes
Action				Yes	Yes				Yes	Not Yet
High	457.00	507.00	504.00	536.00	504.50	489.50	552.00	539.00	531.00	514.00	524.00
Low	425.00	436.00	457.50	489.00	457.00	451.00	478.00	503.00	495.50	469.00	484.00
Close/Last	438.00	493.50	502.50	501.00	484.00	485.50	508.75	530.00	518.50	495.25	510.00