MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for December Live Cattle(CME) as of Oct 29, 2021
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		41	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		23	26	23	21	20	23	27	18	25	27	28
Exceeded High		20	21	20	15	16	22	21	17	23	19	20
Scenario Percentage		87%	81%	87%	71%	80%	96%	78%	94%	92%	70%	71%
Avg Max Increase		3.78%	4.32%	4.50%	4.74%	4.72%	4.59%	4.28%	5.05%	5.38%	5.90%	3.37%
Max Increase		12.47%	15.57%	21.08%	13.31%	9.93%	10.40%	10.78%	17.67%	16.89%	19.71%	11.69%
Avg Days To Max Increase		17	18	14	17	20	21	18	17	19	16	19
Avg Max Decline		-1.14%	-1.15%	-0.91%	-1.24%	-1.77%	-1.40%	-2.10%	-1.72%	-1.59%	-1.21%	-1.72%
Max Decline		-3.07%	-4.31%	-2.77%	-4.36%	-3.82%	-4.19%	-9.56%	-7.78%	-5.36%	-2.96%	-6.01%
Avg Days to Max Decline		9	9	6	8	12	8	7	10	9	6	6
2021 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	No		Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		41	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		16	18	22	24	25	22	18	26	20	18	17
Penetrated Low		10	10	16	16	16	18	15	18	19	12	12
Scenario Percentage		63%	56%	73%	67%	64%	82%	83%	69%	95%	67%	71%
Avg Max Decline		7.26%	7.49%	5.28%	4.13%	5.46%	5.54%	6.64%	6.29%	5.18%	5.54%	4.86%
Max Decline		20.20%	20.51%	11.09%	8.73%	13.42%	14.82%	13.62%	18.35%	17.43%	13.03%	10.05%
Avg Days To Max Decline		22	18	14	16	18	18	17	10	14	11	14
Avg Max Increase		-1.14%	-0.82%	-0.64%	-1.34%	-1.42%	-2.35%	-2.08%	-1.39%	-2.58%	-2.26%	-0.79%
Max Increase		-3.55%	-2.42%	-2.08%	-5.95%	-4.19%	-5.92%	-4.54%	-4.23%	-10.54%	-7.24%	-1.83%
Avg Days to Max Increase		7	9	4	9	7	15	7	8	10	8	3
2021 Contract Condition					Yes					Yes
Action					Yes					Yes
High	120.300	124.780	124.750	128.100	129.750	130.350	133.450	134.575	138.235	134.135	131.930
Low	115.930	118.300	121.635	122.530	124.550	124.700	124.350	129.900	131.500	125.130	125.000
Close/Last	120.050	121.930	123.335	128.030	126.250	128.050	132.100	132.650	133.485	125.730	129.280