MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for December Live Cattle(CME) as of Jan 01, 2019
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		39	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		23	25	23	22	20	24	26	19	25	26	27
Exceeded High		20	20	20	16	16	23	20	18	23	18	18
Scenario Percentage		87%	80%	87%	73%	80%	96%	77%	95%	92%	69%	67%
Avg Max Increase		3.78%	4.33%	4.54%	5.06%	4.77%	5.61%	4.38%	5.38%	5.07%	5.90%	3.44%
Max Increase		12.47%	15.57%	21.08%	13.31%	9.93%	19.90%	10.78%	17.67%	16.89%	19.71%	11.69%
Avg Days To Max Increase		17	18	14	17	20	21	18	18	17	15	17
Avg Max Decline		-1.14%	-1.14%	-1.16%	-1.61%	-1.64%	-1.63%	-2.13%	-1.70%	-1.61%	-1.27%	-1.67%
Max Decline		-3.07%	-4.31%	-5.65%	-7.18%	-3.67%	-6.93%	-9.56%	-7.78%	-5.36%	-2.96%	-6.01%
Avg Days to Max Decline		9	9	8	8	11	8	7	9	9	6	6
2018 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes			Yes
Action		Yes	No		No		Yes			Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		39	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		14	19	22	23	25	21	19	25	20	19	18
Penetrated Low		9	11	16	16	16	18	15	17	19	13	12
Scenario Percentage		64%	58%	73%	70%	64%	86%	79%	68%	95%	68%	67%
Avg Max Decline		5.82%	6.64%	6.28%	5.10%	5.64%	5.54%	6.64%	6.35%	5.18%	6.06%	4.86%
Max Decline		11.87%	14.48%	27.03%	22.79%	13.42%	14.82%	13.62%	18.35%	17.43%	13.03%	10.05%
Avg Days To Max Decline		23	19	15	17	18	18	17	9	14	11	14
Avg Max Increase		-1.09%	-0.58%	-0.78%	-1.30%	-1.72%	-2.35%	-2.08%	-1.09%	-2.58%	-2.03%	-0.79%
Max Increase		-3.55%	-1.39%	-2.08%	-5.95%	-5.68%	-5.92%	-4.54%	-3.45%	-10.54%	-7.24%	-1.83%
Avg Days to Max Increase		7	9	5	9	7	15	7	6	10	8	3
2018 Contract Condition				Yes		Yes		Yes			Yes	Yes
Action				Yes		No		No			Yes	Not Yet
High	115.930	117.180	118.980	118.700	114.385	113.400	113.930	115.885	115.750	119.085	119.750	117.850
Low	110.600	111.350	115.230	109.950	106.950	107.150	108.100	109.800	110.900	112.500	116.030	113.550
Close/Last	113.885	115.600	117.850	110.030	111.835	111.780	113.700	112.980	112.980	118.850	116.950	116.930