MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for August Live Cattle(CME) as of Jan 21, 2022
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul
Tested Years		44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		23	25	29	31	23	25	21	23	18	22	25
Exceeded High		21	20	28	29	20	21	18	18	15	21	19
Scenario Percentage		91%	80%	97%	94%	87%	84%	86%	78%	83%	95%	76%
Avg Max Increase		3.31%	3.66%	3.61%	3.55%	4.14%	6.01%	7.27%	5.47%	6.55%	5.84%	4.22%
Max Increase		6.97%	8.71%	9.85%	10.85%	14.13%	17.33%	22.50%	14.38%	15.62%	21.50%	8.15%
Avg Days To Max Increase		18	15	17	16	19	19	17	14	20	17	15
Avg Max Decline		-1.67%	-0.83%	-1.49%	-1.04%	-1.24%	-1.50%	-1.39%	-1.72%	-2.27%	-2.22%	-1.04%
Max Decline		-6.61%	-3.36%	-4.06%	-4.32%	-3.95%	-6.96%	-3.71%	-6.15%	-6.04%	-5.02%	-3.43%
Avg Days to Max Decline		10	8	7	9	10	7	7	9	14	12	3
2021 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes
Action		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul
Tested Years		44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		19	20	16	13	22	20	23	22	26	23	19
Penetrated Low		16	13	12	7	17	14	20	15	19	18	9
Scenario Percentage		84%	65%	75%	54%	77%	70%	87%	68%	73%	78%	47%
Avg Max Decline		4.39%	4.73%	4.69%	4.71%	6.09%	7.92%	6.05%	5.69%	5.61%	5.88%	3.59%
Max Decline		17.36%	16.33%	13.71%	9.56%	22.86%	21.29%	14.00%	11.52%	19.32%	16.00%	7.32%
Avg Days To Max Decline		14	14	17	19	20	20	17	16	18	14	12
Avg Max Increase		-1.35%	-0.62%	-0.88%	-1.95%	-1.25%	-0.92%	-1.40%	-1.80%	-1.46%	-1.69%	-1.58%
Max Increase		-8.77%	-1.32%	-2.87%	-3.40%	-3.97%	-3.62%	-5.21%	-7.34%	-3.97%	-4.35%	-7.13%
Avg Days to Max Increase		5	4	6	11	7	6	9	8	5	6	3
2021 Contract Condition			Yes						Yes	Yes		Yes
Action			No						Yes	Yes		Not Yet
High	110.500	110.085	110.385	112.100	114.550	119.180	120.250	122.350	124.450	122.800	125.780	124.335
Low	106.135	105.980	102.385	106.350	109.335	111.900	115.930	115.585	115.930	116.250	114.635	118.850
Close/Last	107.230	109.635	107.335	111.135	114.430	116.500	117.050	121.980	118.635	118.600	122.730	122.085