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ScenarioSM Study for August Live Cattle(CME) as of Nov 09, 2020 | ||||||||||||
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Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
Tested Month | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul |
Tested Years | 43 | 44 | 44 | 44 | 44 | 44 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | |
Closed Higher | 22 | 25 | 28 | 30 | 22 | 24 | 21 | 24 | 19 | 21 | 25 | |
Exceeded High | 20 | 20 | 27 | 28 | 19 | 20 | 18 | 18 | 15 | 20 | 19 | |
Scenario Percentage | 91% | 80% | 96% | 93% | 86% | 83% | 86% | 75% | 79% | 95% | 76% | |
Avg Max Increase | 3.37% | 3.66% | 3.47% | 3.50% | 4.09% | 6.00% | 7.64% | 5.47% | 6.55% | 5.94% | 4.22% | |
Max Increase | 6.97% | 8.71% | 9.85% | 10.85% | 14.13% | 17.33% | 22.50% | 14.38% | 15.62% | 21.50% | 8.15% | |
Avg Days To Max Increase | 18 | 15 | 16 | 16 | 18 | 19 | 18 | 14 | 20 | 16 | 15 | |
Avg Max Decline | -1.42% | -0.83% | -1.49% | -1.00% | -1.27% | -1.51% | -1.45% | -1.72% | -2.27% | -2.17% | -1.04% | |
Max Decline | -6.31% | -3.36% | -4.06% | -4.32% | -3.95% | -6.96% | -3.71% | -6.15% | -6.04% | -5.02% | -3.43% | |
Avg Days to Max Decline | 9 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 14 | 12 | 3 | |
2020 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | ||||||
Action | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.