MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for June Live Cattle(CME) as of Sep 16, 2022
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May
Tested Years		44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		31	19	23	28	32	30	27	28	20	20	20
Exceeded High		22	15	21	23	27	30	23	23	16	15	11
Scenario Percentage		71%	79%	91%	82%	84%	100%	85%	82%	80%	75%	55%
Avg Max Increase		3.39%	3.17%	3.88%	3.79%	4.19%	3.68%	5.93%	6.09%	7.61%	6.46%	5.21%
Max Increase		8.07%	8.55%	7.95%	10.56%	10.77%	10.94%	17.54%	16.03%	23.53%	16.16%	11.83%
Avg Days To Max Increase		17	14	18	20	20	16	20	17	13	12	15
Avg Max Decline		-1.47%	-1.41%	-1.76%	-1.17%	-1.79%	-1.31%	-1.48%	-1.38%	-1.52%	-1.56%	-1.17%
Max Decline		-7.20%	-3.06%	-7.27%	-3.45%	-6.05%	-3.35%	-4.47%	-4.17%	-4.69%	-6.83%	-3.65%
Avg Days to Max Decline		10	14	11	11	12	9	9	6	9	7	3
2022 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	No		Yes	Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May
Tested Years		44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		13	25	22	16	13	15	18	17	25	25	25
Penetrated Low		12	16	16	11	9	7	14	13	22	17	16
Scenario Percentage		92%	64%	73%	69%	69%	47%	78%	76%	88%	68%	64%
Avg Max Decline		5.68%	4.73%	4.13%	5.20%	5.76%	5.40%	6.81%	9.34%	7.18%	5.53%	3.36%
Max Decline		12.09%	18.54%	16.12%	16.03%	13.51%	10.52%	23.60%	24.31%	16.82%	12.62%	7.02%
Avg Days To Max Decline		15	16	16	13	16	17	20	19	18	14	13
Avg Max Increase		-1.29%	-0.94%	-1.65%	-0.77%	-0.73%	-2.07%	-2.03%	-1.10%	-1.41%	-1.88%	-0.77%
Max Increase		-4.24%	-3.16%	-8.42%	-1.96%	-2.77%	-2.85%	-4.60%	-4.67%	-5.92%	-8.48%	-2.56%
Avg Days to Max Increase		3	10	7	5	4	11	9	4	6	7	4
2022 Contract Condition				Yes				Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action				No				Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Not Yet
High	133.030	134.750	136.830	136.135	134.485	139.500	139.750	139.680	143.350	138.650	140.000	136.280
Low	124.150	130.950	133.075	127.880	128.350	131.600	135.400	134.530	136.430	130.985	132.485	130.235
Close/Last	132.485	133.530	135.450	128.500	132.180	136.250	139.200	139.080	137.700	137.135	132.650	130.530