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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for April Live Cattle(CME) as of Jul 17, 2025
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   24 28 32 19 23 28 30 29 29 27 23
Exceeded High   21 26 24 16 21 21 26 26 25 22 18
Scenario Percentage   88% 93% 75% 84% 91% 75% 87% 90% 86% 81% 78%
Avg Max Increase   4.33% 3.68% 3.08% 3.03% 3.62% 3.99% 4.77% 4.53% 5.81% 5.65% 4.30%
Max Increase   11.22% 7.68% 5.32% 10.36% 8.55% 12.19% 10.33% 12.43% 17.14% 17.78% 15.80%
Avg Days To Max Increase   21 21 16 18 18 20 17 20 18 13 14
Avg Max Decline   -1.38% -0.96% -1.16% -1.29% -1.47% -1.24% -2.03% -1.55% -1.57% -1.47% -1.12%
Max Decline   -3.66% -3.40% -5.06% -2.45% -7.77% -3.61% -6.20% -4.00% -6.33% -4.16% -4.84%
Avg Days to Max Decline   10 7 9 17 13 10 11 13 11 8 3
2025 Contract Condition   Yes Yes     Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes   Yes
Action   No No     Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes   Yes
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   21 17 12 26 21 17 14 16 16 18 22
Penetrated Low   11 12 10 18 15 12 9 7 13 13 16
Scenario Percentage   52% 71% 83% 69% 71% 71% 64% 44% 81% 72% 73%
Avg Max Decline   4.40% 4.23% 5.69% 4.78% 4.40% 4.60% 6.11% 6.65% 7.11% 8.65% 5.48%
Max Decline   12.45% 8.71% 10.48% 17.53% 15.87% 13.03% 14.29% 10.53% 23.90% 24.29% 20.01%
Avg Days To Max Decline   16 22 14 14 18 12 10 19 15 15 16
Avg Max Increase   -0.93% -1.46% -1.70% -1.24% -2.23% -1.48% -0.49% -2.05% -1.87% -1.81% -1.16%
Max Increase   -3.15% -4.22% -4.31% -4.40% -8.96% -3.35% -1.60% -4.32% -4.52% -4.89% -3.10%
Avg Days to Max Increase   5 13 4 9 13 9 1 15 8 9 5
2025 Contract Condition       Yes Yes           Yes  
Action       Yes No           Yes  
High 191.530 193.750 192.530 192.500 189.530 186.980 190.780 192.000 194.450 207.730 203.280 211.130
Low 181.380 184.880 186.780 187.250 175.530 176.100 185.900 185.650 188.130 194.450 192.550 189.500
Close/Last 188.050 189.450 189.680 189.530 180.180 186.550 187.350 190.780 194.280 202.300 192.650 207.800

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