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ScenarioSM Study for April Live Cattle(CME) as of Sep 26, 2023 | ||||||||||||
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Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
Tested Month | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar |
Tested Years | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | |
Closed Higher | 23 | 27 | 32 | 19 | 23 | 27 | 31 | 29 | 28 | 28 | 23 | |
Exceeded High | 20 | 26 | 24 | 16 | 22 | 20 | 26 | 26 | 24 | 22 | 18 | |
Scenario Percentage | 87% | 96% | 75% | 84% | 96% | 74% | 84% | 90% | 86% | 79% | 78% | |
Avg Max Increase | 4.25% | 3.70% | 3.09% | 3.17% | 3.72% | 4.00% | 4.90% | 4.85% | 6.28% | 5.93% | 4.39% | |
Max Increase | 11.22% | 7.69% | 5.41% | 10.35% | 8.55% | 12.19% | 12.39% | 15.44% | 17.14% | 16.17% | 14.21% | |
Avg Days To Max Increase | 22 | 20 | 17 | 17 | 18 | 20 | 18 | 20 | 19 | 12 | 12 | |
Avg Max Decline | -1.44% | -0.96% | -1.46% | -1.47% | -2.06% | -1.25% | -1.98% | -1.57% | -1.58% | -1.47% | -0.87% | |
Max Decline | -3.66% | -3.41% | -7.69% | -3.52% | -8.67% | -3.62% | -6.20% | -4.00% | -4.87% | -4.16% | -2.31% | |
Avg Days to Max Decline | 10 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 10 | 8 | 2 | |
2023 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | |||
Action | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.