MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for April Live Cattle(CME) as of Jan 21, 2022
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		23	25	30	17	24	26	30	29	28	28	24
Exceeded High		20	24	22	15	23	18	25	25	24	22	19
Scenario Percentage		87%	96%	73%	88%	96%	69%	83%	86%	86%	79%	79%
Avg Max Increase		4.09%	3.70%	3.11%	3.27%	3.71%	3.97%	5.28%	5.31%	7.12%	6.66%	4.97%
Max Increase		11.22%	7.69%	5.41%	10.35%	8.55%	12.19%	12.39%	15.44%	23.63%	18.98%	15.80%
Avg Days To Max Increase		21	20	16	16	18	19	17	20	19	13	14
Avg Max Decline		-1.39%	-0.97%	-1.57%	-1.41%	-2.08%	-1.26%	-1.99%	-1.51%	-1.55%	-1.33%	-0.95%
Max Decline		-3.66%	-3.41%	-7.69%	-3.52%	-8.67%	-3.62%	-6.20%	-3.48%	-4.87%	-4.16%	-2.31%
Avg Days to Max Decline		10	7	9	18	13	11	10	13	9	7	2
2021 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes
Action		Yes		Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		22	20	14	28	20	19	14	16	17	17	21
Penetrated Low		13	14	12	19	16	11	9	8	14	11	16
Scenario Percentage		59%	70%	86%	68%	80%	58%	64%	50%	82%	65%	76%
Avg Max Decline		5.16%	4.66%	6.07%	5.18%	4.17%	3.98%	6.24%	7.05%	7.26%	9.57%	5.56%
Max Decline		12.45%	12.27%	12.81%	17.53%	15.87%	13.03%	14.30%	10.53%	23.89%	24.29%	20.02%
Avg Days To Max Decline		18	20	14	13	17	13	11	20	18	17	16
Avg Max Increase		-1.17%	-1.53%	-1.66%	-1.20%	-2.14%	-1.51%	-0.70%	-2.02%	-2.06%	-1.97%	-1.06%
Max Increase		-4.45%	-4.22%	-4.31%	-4.40%	-8.96%	-3.35%	-2.19%	-4.32%	-5.34%	-4.89%	-3.09%
Avg Days to Max Increase		7	12	5	9	12	10	1	14	8	10	5
2021 Contract Condition			Yes		Yes		Yes				Yes
Action			No		Yes		No				Yes
High	110.030	114.980	112.200	115.900	118.585	118.480	118.500	118.900	119.900	123.900	126.700	121.585
Low	97.000	106.200	107.385	109.200	113.730	113.400	108.635	112.730	114.650	115.530	119.780	118.000
Close/Last	106.650	110.550	109.400	115.850	114.550	117.780	113.650	116.400	119.250	121.850	120.000	120.980