MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for April Live Cattle(CME) as of Dec 30, 2016
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar
Tested Years		43	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		22	27	31	19	23	26	30	28	28	27	25
Exceeded High		19	25	23	17	22	17	25	25	22	22	20
Scenario Percentage		86%	93%	74%	89%	96%	65%	83%	89%	79%	81%	80%
Avg Max Increase		5.09%	5.53%	3.61%	3.45%	3.54%	4.00%	5.87%	5.89%	7.69%	7.11%	5.01%
Max Increase		22.82%	28.72%	11.79%	10.35%	8.50%	9.13%	15.90%	15.44%	23.63%	23.61%	17.27%
Avg Days To Max Increase		22	21	15	16	20	20	16	20	19	13	14
Avg Max Decline		-1.20%	-0.90%	-1.63%	-1.38%	-1.98%	-1.31%	-1.87%	-1.29%	-1.75%	-1.39%	-1.00%
Max Decline		-3.66%	-3.41%	-7.69%	-3.52%	-8.67%	-3.62%	-6.20%	-3.48%	-4.87%	-4.16%	-2.90%
Avg Days to Max Decline		10	7	8	16	13	10	10	12	9	7	2
2016 Contract Condition		Yes					Yes		Yes		Yes
Action		Yes					No		No		Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar
Tested Years		43	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		21	17	14	26	21	19	14	17	17	18	20
Penetrated Low		12	12	12	19	16	11	10	9	13	12	15
Scenario Percentage		57%	71%	86%	73%	76%	58%	71%	53%	76%	67%	75%
Avg Max Decline		5.45%	4.53%	5.31%	5.55%	4.79%	4.32%	6.96%	8.67%	6.31%	7.84%	4.93%
Max Decline		12.45%	12.27%	12.81%	17.84%	15.87%	13.03%	15.83%	14.02%	13.57%	16.04%	11.54%
Avg Days To Max Decline		19	19	13	13	18	13	11	21	18	12	14
Avg Max Increase		-1.23%	-1.32%	-1.57%	-1.03%	-2.01%	-1.75%	-1.08%	-1.95%	-2.26%	-1.48%	-1.20%
Max Increase		-4.45%	-3.64%	-4.22%	-4.40%	-8.96%	-3.38%	-4.52%	-4.32%	-5.34%	-4.89%	-3.09%
Avg Days to Max Increase		8	9	5	7	11	10	3	12	8	7	4
2016 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes		Yes
Action			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes		No		Yes
High	151.000	155.050	155.100	154.485	149.030	145.330	144.450	142.500	138.950	138.550	138.400	141.900
Low	146.050	149.100	150.850	145.650	140.530	131.280	130.800	127.800	123.050	127.150	128.600	131.030
Close/Last	149.800	153.530	151.280	146.650	143.650	132.575	142.135	132.450	137.985	134.000	136.985	132.930