MRCI Logo
MRCI's Scenario Study

MRCI Logo
MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for March Lumber(CME) as of Mar 30, 2020
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Tested Years   32 36 41 44 44 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   14 17 18 16 21 15 28 33 28 22 20
Exceeded High   10 12 13 14 13 15 24 27 24 18 6
Scenario Percentage   71% 71% 72% 88% 62% 100% 86% 82% 86% 82% 30%
Avg Max Increase   8.75% 6.66% 4.96% 8.88% 10.46% 9.35% 9.46% 10.31% 12.92% 12.22% 9.97%
Max Increase   19.90% 14.05% 11.06% 15.59% 21.70% 29.85% 22.31% 28.49% 65.75% 62.41% 17.63%
Avg Days To Max Increase   10 17 18 20 19 13 22 19 16 11 8
Avg Max Decline   -0.66% -1.21% -2.21% -2.39% -2.19% -2.98% -3.63% -3.79% -3.91% -1.44% -1.50%
Max Decline   -3.19% -4.45% -8.90% -5.45% -6.23% -8.87% -10.22% -11.42% -10.84% -6.62% -4.66%
Avg Days to Max Decline   3 4 10 10 15 9 13 12 12 4 3
2020 Contract Condition       Yes   Yes   Yes Yes Yes Yes  
Action       No   Yes   Yes Yes Yes Yes  
Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Tested Years   32 36 41 44 44 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   18 19 23 28 22 30 17 11 17 23 25
Penetrated Low   12 15 15 20 18 20 9 5 12 15 21
Scenario Percentage   67% 79% 65% 71% 82% 67% 53% 45% 71% 65% 84%
Avg Max Decline   7.77% 7.19% 9.15% 10.69% 9.46% 7.49% 7.96% 12.46% 11.16% 9.07% 5.19%
Max Decline   14.84% 18.78% 18.52% 21.23% 22.90% 20.19% 17.59% 34.27% 26.57% 19.91% 17.38%
Avg Days To Max Decline   14 19 16 24 19 17 16 22 20 8 9
Avg Max Increase   -1.64% -2.22% -1.79% -2.75% -3.24% -3.06% -3.08% -5.80% -1.71% -3.47% -1.80%
Max Increase   -4.75% -9.30% -5.41% -12.20% -10.32% -11.67% -5.91% -12.30% -7.20% -9.66% -5.78%
Avg Days to Max Increase   13 7 9 12 12 6 9 11 7 8 3
2020 Contract Condition   Yes Yes   Yes   Yes         Yes
Action   Yes Yes   No   No         Yes
High 393.7 362.7 363.6 398.1 388.1 389.3 390.0 412.0 427.9 434.5 444.4 468.3
Low 350.8 325.6 323.1 319.8 341.0 349.7 367.0 367.1 386.5 397.7 414.1 394.0
Close/Last 359.4 347.1 324.0 373.6 355.1 385.0 377.5 403.5 420.7 426.2 435.5 399.4

Copyright © 2020 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
www.mrci.comsales@mrci.com
Toll Free: 800-927-7259