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ScenarioSM Study for January Lumber(CME) as of May 10, 2021 | ||||||||||||
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Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
Tested Month | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
Tested Years | 34 | 36 | 42 | 44 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | |
Closed Higher | 17 | 17 | 20 | 22 | 21 | 16 | 22 | 14 | 27 | 33 | 27 | |
Exceeded High | 13 | 11 | 16 | 14 | 15 | 14 | 12 | 13 | 22 | 22 | 15 | |
Scenario Percentage | 76% | 65% | 80% | 64% | 71% | 88% | 55% | 93% | 81% | 67% | 56% | |
Avg Max Increase | 9.31% | 11.42% | 9.87% | 9.90% | 11.20% | 12.98% | 9.98% | 11.48% | 11.08% | 11.07% | 6.06% | |
Max Increase | 46.82% | 27.49% | 25.16% | 40.49% | 86.34% | 49.80% | 19.41% | 35.46% | 29.17% | 43.25% | 12.64% | |
Avg Days To Max Increase | 17 | 18 | 14 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 16 | 13 | 21 | 11 | 8 | |
Avg Max Decline | -1.30% | -1.61% | -1.07% | -2.06% | -2.63% | -2.73% | -2.36% | -3.07% | -3.62% | -3.70% | -0.97% | |
Max Decline | -5.98% | -6.05% | -5.07% | -5.15% | -8.71% | -7.00% | -8.36% | -7.74% | -12.32% | -11.73% | -4.12% | |
Avg Days to Max Decline | 6 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 11 | 8 | 3 | |
2021 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | |||||
Action | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | No | Yes | Yes |
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