MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for December Wheat(KCBT) as of Jun 08, 2020
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		37	42	42	43	44	44	44	44	44	44	44
Closed Higher		21	19	17	20	21	15	20	18	27	24	21
Exceeded High		14	10	15	15	13	9	15	11	23	15	12
Scenario Percentage		67%	53%	88%	75%	62%	60%	75%	61%	85%	63%	57%
Avg Max Increase		10.70%	13.54%	10.11%	13.74%	15.37%	18.43%	13.95%	11.74%	7.08%	7.85%	3.73%
Max Increase		36.74%	37.67%	34.95%	40.64%	35.83%	63.13%	47.21%	30.80%	18.11%	16.18%	7.72%
Avg Days To Max Increase		18	15	14	16	16	15	21	14	16	7	6
Avg Max Decline		-1.46%	-2.78%	-2.92%	-2.27%	-1.95%	-1.53%	-2.52%	-1.14%	-1.71%	-2.99%	-0.90%
Max Decline		-4.43%	-9.63%	-6.36%	-9.64%	-6.20%	-6.87%	-8.20%	-5.43%	-4.45%	-11.19%	-1.87%
Avg Days to Max Decline		7	11	13	5	6	5	10	6	5	9	2
2019 Contract Condition		Yes				Yes				Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		No				Yes				Yes	Yes	Yes

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		37	42	42	43	44	44	44	44	44	44	44
Closed Lower		16	23	25	23	23	29	24	26	17	20	23
Penetrated Low		14	20	19	21	21	25	20	18	14	15	13
Scenario Percentage		88%	87%	76%	91%	91%	86%	83%	69%	82%	75%	57%
Avg Max Decline		6.57%	5.82%	6.38%	6.42%	8.80%	8.70%	9.41%	8.22%	8.48%	7.58%	5.19%
Max Decline		12.15%	14.83%	18.60%	22.51%	19.95%	20.10%	21.33%	36.72%	25.42%	15.75%	15.97%
Avg Days To Max Decline		19	19	18	19	20	16	16	17	17	14	8
Avg Max Increase		-1.92%	-2.94%	-2.46%	-3.42%	-3.22%	-2.13%	-2.98%	-1.56%	-2.11%	-2.75%	-0.85%
Max Increase		-5.80%	-13.04%	-6.90%	-23.37%	-19.82%	-7.08%	-16.86%	-6.08%	-6.85%	-8.90%	-2.23%
Avg Days to Max Increase		10	16	11	9	10	7	6	5	7	5	2
2019 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes
Action			Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes
High	572.50	561.25	552.75	492.75	480.75	520.00	527.25	491.50	444.00	420.00	437.25	441.75
Low	541.50	541.50	481.75	461.50	425.25	414.00	476.00	439.00	393.75	381.00	398.75	413.25
Close/Last	542.50	545.50	482.50	469.75	428.00	505.25	484.50	440.50	397.25	415.00	419.75	438.75