MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for December Wheat(KCBT) as of Jan 01, 2019
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		36	41	41	42	43	43	43	43	43	43	43
Closed Higher		20	19	17	20	20	15	20	18	26	23	20
Exceeded High		14	10	15	15	12	9	15	11	22	14	11
Scenario Percentage		70%	53%	88%	75%	60%	60%	75%	61%	85%	61%	55%
Avg Max Increase		10.70%	13.54%	10.11%	13.74%	16.29%	18.43%	13.95%	11.74%	7.11%	8.01%	3.99%
Max Increase		36.74%	37.67%	34.95%	40.64%	35.83%	63.13%	47.21%	30.80%	18.11%	16.18%	7.94%
Avg Days To Max Increase		18	15	14	16	17	15	21	14	16	8	6
Avg Max Decline		-1.46%	-2.78%	-2.92%	-2.27%	-1.97%	-1.53%	-2.52%	-1.14%	-1.61%	-3.09%	-0.85%
Max Decline		-4.43%	-9.63%	-6.36%	-9.64%	-6.20%	-6.87%	-8.20%	-5.43%	-4.45%	-11.19%	-1.87%
Avg Days to Max Decline		7	11	13	5	6	5	10	6	5	9	2
2018 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes
Action		Yes	Yes		Yes	No		Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		36	41	41	42	43	43	43	43	43	43	43
Closed Lower		16	22	24	22	23	28	23	25	17	20	23
Penetrated Low		14	19	18	20	21	24	19	17	14	15	15
Scenario Percentage		88%	86%	75%	91%	91%	86%	83%	68%	82%	75%	65%
Avg Max Decline		6.57%	5.50%	6.08%	6.58%	8.80%	8.29%	9.19%	8.46%	8.48%	7.68%	5.39%
Max Decline		12.15%	14.83%	18.60%	22.51%	19.95%	20.10%	21.33%	36.72%	25.42%	15.75%	15.97%
Avg Days To Max Decline		19	18	18	19	20	15	16	18	17	14	9
Avg Max Increase		-1.92%	-2.98%	-2.47%	-3.43%	-3.22%	-2.16%	-3.10%	-1.61%	-2.11%	-2.75%	-0.91%
Max Increase		-5.80%	-13.04%	-6.90%	-23.37%	-19.82%	-7.08%	-16.86%	-6.08%	-6.85%	-8.90%	-2.24%
Avg Days to Max Increase		10	15	12	10	10	7	6	5	7	5	2
2018 Contract Condition				Yes			Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action				No			Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Not Yet
High	510.25	533.75	577.25	597.00	587.75	615.25	597.75	591.00	626.00	549.00	533.25	510.75
Low	478.25	487.75	519.50	517.50	530.00	547.00	495.00	493.25	526.25	498.75	484.50	456.75
Close/Last	493.75	530.50	573.00	529.75	578.75	584.50	511.50	584.25	553.25	511.25	493.25	486.50