MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for December Wheat(KCBT) as of Jan 01, 2016
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		33	38	38	39	40	40	40	40	40	40	40
Closed Higher		17	17	16	18	19	14	19	18	24	23	20
Exceeded High		12	9	14	13	12	8	14	11	21	14	11
Scenario Percentage		71%	53%	88%	72%	63%	57%	74%	61%	88%	61%	55%
Avg Max Increase		10.75%	14.58%	10.50%	14.11%	16.29%	19.66%	14.43%	11.74%	7.30%	8.01%	4.17%
Max Increase		36.74%	37.67%	34.95%	40.64%	35.83%	63.13%	47.21%	30.80%	18.11%	16.18%	9.92%
Avg Days To Max Increase		19	16	14	14	17	16	22	14	15	8	6
Avg Max Decline		-1.46%	-3.02%	-2.68%	-1.98%	-1.97%	-1.84%	-2.66%	-1.14%	-1.48%	-3.09%	-0.85%
Max Decline		-4.43%	-9.63%	-6.36%	-9.64%	-6.20%	-6.87%	-8.20%	-5.43%	-3.89%	-11.19%	-1.87%
Avg Days to Max Decline		8	12	13	4	6	5	11	6	5	9	2
2015 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes			Yes			Yes
Action			Yes	Yes			No			Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		33	38	38	39	40	40	40	40	40	40	40
Closed Lower		16	21	22	21	21	26	21	22	16	17	20
Penetrated Low		14	18	17	19	20	22	17	15	13	12	13
Scenario Percentage		88%	86%	77%	90%	95%	85%	81%	68%	81%	71%	65%
Avg Max Decline		6.57%	5.69%	6.19%	6.13%	8.59%	8.34%	8.76%	8.42%	8.31%	8.03%	6.10%
Max Decline		12.15%	14.83%	18.60%	22.51%	19.95%	20.10%	21.33%	36.72%	25.42%	15.75%	15.97%
Avg Days To Max Decline		19	19	18	19	20	15	15	17	16	14	9
Avg Max Increase		-1.92%	-2.78%	-2.47%	-3.44%	-2.89%	-2.13%	-3.23%	-1.51%	-1.94%	-2.63%	-0.84%
Max Increase		-5.80%	-13.04%	-6.90%	-23.37%	-19.82%	-7.08%	-16.86%	-6.08%	-6.85%	-8.90%	-2.24%
Avg Days to Max Increase		10	16	12	8	10	7	6	4	7	4	2
2015 Contract Condition		Yes			Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
Action		Yes			Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
High	719.00	668.50	604.25	608.25	616.25	590.00	628.75	628.00	531.75	506.75	521.00	499.50
Low	643.00	570.00	557.25	552.25	520.00	515.00	522.75	510.00	478.25	465.75	469.50	449.00
Close/Last	659.00	572.25	574.50	586.50	528.50	524.75	628.00	512.00	487.75	501.75	493.75	457.00