MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for December Wheat(KCBT) as of Jan 01, 2007
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years	24	29	29	30	31	31	31	31	31	31	31
Closed Higher	13	12	13	14	15	9	14	14	19	18	17
Exceeded High	9	7	11	10	9	5	10	10	17	11	9
Scenario Percentage	69%	58%	85%	71%	60%	56%	71%	71%	89%	61%	53%
Avg Max Increase	8.88%	14.90%	10.30%	14.97%	14.20%	9.75%	11.61%	9.83%	7.39%	6.87%	3.54%
Max Increase	16.41%	37.67%	34.95%	40.64%	30.26%	26.25%	32.33%	18.88%	18.11%	14.66%	7.53%
Avg Days To Max Increase	19	16	14	14	17	15	21	15	17	8	6
Avg Max Decline	-1.48%	-3.33%	-2.53%	-1.72%	-2.05%	-1.88%	-2.78%	-1.46%	-1.41%	-2.39%	-0.77%
Max Decline	-4.43%	-9.63%	-6.36%	-9.64%	-6.20%	-6.87%	-8.20%	-5.43%	-3.43%	-5.31%	-1.86%
Avg Days to Max Decline	9	15	14	3	6	8	10	6	5	9	2
2006 Contract Condition	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes
Action	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes	Not Yet	Not Yet

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years	24	29	29	30	31	31	31	31	31	31	31
Closed Lower	11	17	16	16	16	22	17	17	12	13	14
Penetrated Low	10	14	13	14	16	18	13	10	9	8	11
Scenario Percentage	91%	82%	81%	88%	100%	82%	76%	59%	75%	62%	79%
Avg Max Decline	6.13%	4.80%	5.16%	5.16%	8.63%	8.38%	6.94%	6.71%	7.59%	7.14%	7.13%
Max Decline	9.78%	11.75%	12.23%	9.98%	19.95%	20.10%	21.33%	17.01%	12.59%	15.75%	19.58%
Avg Days To Max Decline	20	22	20	18	19	14	13	18	18	18	14
Avg Max Increase	-1.29%	-3.15%	-2.69%	-2.18%	-2.11%	-2.03%	-1.84%	-1.68%	-1.94%	-1.91%	-1.97%
Max Increase	-4.02%	-13.04%	-6.16%	-7.88%	-6.82%	-7.08%	-7.17%	-6.08%	-6.85%	-3.05%	-7.77%
Avg Days to Max Increase	10	17	15	6	10	6	5	4	7	5	-63
2006 Contract Condition			Yes				Yes	Yes
Action			No				Yes	No
High	418.00	465.00	470.00	480.00	533.00	521.50	539.00	507.00	501.75	556.00	540.00
Low	380.50	407.50	413.00	428.25	448.00	477.50	491.00	454.00	455.00	485.00	503.50
Close/Last	412.75	457.00	433.50	447.00	501.50	519.00	505.50	492.25	496.00	516.00	534.00