Moore Research Center, Inc.

  • Increase font size
  • Default font size
  • Decrease font size
Home MRCI Online
Print
New Windows

MRCI's Scenario Study

MRCI Logo
MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for September Wheat(KCBT) as of Jul 17, 2025
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Tested Years   41 44 44 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   24 16 21 24 18 20 21 21 16 22 25
Exceeded High   16 10 19 19 11 18 17 12 10 15 15
Scenario Percentage   67% 63% 90% 79% 61% 90% 81% 57% 63% 68% 60%
Avg Max Increase   8.42% 9.55% 10.92% 9.76% 16.24% 12.60% 13.10% 15.85% 20.29% 13.29% 5.12%
Max Increase   23.49% 25.57% 58.54% 36.91% 40.83% 36.57% 33.75% 38.40% 65.88% 36.72% 19.28%
Avg Days To Max Increase   19 19 15 16 16 16 16 17 18 13 6
Avg Max Decline   -2.46% -2.80% -2.46% -1.29% -3.38% -3.22% -2.41% -2.36% -2.61% -2.12% -0.53%
Max Decline   -9.41% -7.20% -8.32% -5.19% -11.73% -14.60% -10.29% -6.19% -12.25% -7.40% -6.57%
Avg Days to Max Decline   15 16 7 7 11 10 5 7 5 5 1
2025 Contract Condition       Yes Yes       Yes      
Action       Yes Yes       Yes      
Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Tested Years   41 44 44 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   16 27 22 21 27 24 23 24 29 23 20
Penetrated Low   13 22 19 18 25 18 20 22 26 19 8
Scenario Percentage   81% 81% 86% 86% 93% 75% 87% 92% 90% 83% 40%
Avg Max Decline   6.75% 6.08% 6.59% 7.18% 6.06% 6.09% 7.29% 9.29% 9.17% 8.35% 4.65%
Max Decline   14.78% 14.02% 14.55% 11.83% 15.47% 18.83% 23.52% 19.43% 20.03% 18.91% 10.20%
Avg Days To Max Decline   18 16 19 16 18 17 21 17 15 12 5
Avg Max Increase   -2.60% -1.44% -2.03% -2.45% -3.05% -2.91% -3.76% -3.53% -2.45% -3.11% -0.06%
Max Increase   -7.19% -4.10% -6.30% -6.68% -14.26% -8.67% -23.90% -20.43% -8.34% -17.83% -0.99%
Avg Days to Max Increase   8 8 11 11 15 11 10 9 6 7 2
2025 Contract Condition   Yes Yes     Yes Yes Yes   Yes Yes  
Action   Yes Yes     Yes Yes Yes   Yes    
High 637.00 663.00 619.00 598.00 620.50 665.50 641.25 603.00 561.50 590.50 549.25  
Low 589.50 603.75 566.25 563.50 568.50 600.25 572.25 543.00 515.50 525.50 515.00  
Close/Last 623.00 613.50 569.00 588.00 610.50 600.50 585.00 544.25 547.00 526.75 517.50  

Banner

Newsflash

Central banks bought big, but the COT report waves a red flag. Seasonal gains await—Market players, read or regret! https://tinyurl.com/4antcta9