MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for September Wheat(KCBT) as of Dec 30, 2016
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		34	38	39	40	40	40	40	41	41	41	41
Closed Higher		20	15	20	21	16	17	17	19	15	18	23
Exceeded High		14	9	17	17	9	15	13	12	8	12	13
Scenario Percentage		70%	60%	85%	81%	56%	88%	76%	63%	53%	67%	57%
Avg Max Increase		7.80%	9.23%	10.95%	9.56%	14.82%	10.78%	14.98%	17.35%	21.29%	14.50%	5.49%
Max Increase		23.49%	25.57%	58.54%	36.91%	40.83%	36.57%	42.84%	38.40%	65.88%	38.95%	21.22%
Avg Days To Max Increase		17	19	16	16	18	14	14	17	18	15	8
Avg Max Decline		-2.33%	-2.64%	-2.46%	-1.02%	-3.00%	-2.22%	-1.97%	-2.18%	-1.72%	-1.97%	-0.10%
Max Decline		-9.41%	-7.20%	-8.32%	-5.19%	-10.33%	-6.74%	-10.29%	-6.19%	-8.46%	-6.59%	-1.27%
Avg Days to Max Decline		13	17	7	7	13	9	4	6	5	6	2
2016 Contract Condition					Yes		Yes
Action					No		Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		34	38	39	40	40	40	40	41	41	41	41
Closed Lower		13	22	18	19	24	22	22	22	26	23	18
Penetrated Low		10	17	16	17	21	17	19	21	23	19	7
Scenario Percentage		77%	77%	89%	89%	88%	77%	86%	95%	88%	83%	39%
Avg Max Decline		6.95%	6.26%	5.52%	5.99%	5.73%	6.16%	7.28%	9.24%	8.41%	7.28%	4.29%
Max Decline		14.78%	14.02%	12.10%	11.83%	15.47%	18.83%	23.52%	19.43%	20.03%	18.91%	10.20%
Avg Days To Max Decline		16	17	18	17	18	18	20	18	14	11	7
Avg Max Increase		-2.52%	-1.39%	-2.10%	-2.11%	-2.97%	-2.84%	-3.69%	-3.36%	-2.14%	-2.93%	-0.40%
Max Increase		-7.19%	-3.98%	-6.30%	-6.68%	-14.26%	-8.67%	-23.90%	-20.43%	-8.34%	-17.83%	-1.18%
Avg Days to Max Increase		9	10	11	10	14	11	10	10	5	6	2
2016 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Not Yet
High	553.25	567.00	550.00	529.50	514.75	506.00	513.00	523.75	493.75	511.50	432.75	424.00
Low	514.75	518.75	501.75	499.50	487.50	472.50	471.00	467.25	458.75	414.25	399.00	367.25
Close/Last	550.00	543.50	509.25	503.00	505.75	480.75	501.00	494.25	463.75	422.50	409.75	371.25