MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for July Wheat(KCBT) as of Jan 21, 2022
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		21	26	26	19	21	24	17	19	23	20	16
Exceeded High		14	23	18	10	18	17	9	16	18	11	8
Scenario Percentage		67%	88%	69%	53%	86%	71%	53%	84%	78%	55%	50%
Avg Max Increase		8.76%	6.75%	7.61%	9.58%	11.95%	10.54%	15.14%	10.60%	14.84%	16.16%	7.55%
Max Increase		18.94%	17.57%	23.52%	25.31%	60.93%	39.68%	42.27%	37.83%	41.89%	31.56%	15.69%
Avg Days To Max Increase		17	17	16	14	15	17	18	14	14	17	9
Avg Max Decline		-2.29%	-1.87%	-2.58%	-3.35%	-2.86%	-1.72%	-2.70%	-2.55%	-2.41%	-1.92%	-0.40%
Max Decline		-5.38%	-5.73%	-10.23%	-7.13%	-9.54%	-5.86%	-9.79%	-7.03%	-10.53%	-6.89%	-3.11%
Avg Days to Max Decline		15	7	13	13	7	7	11	7	5	4	2
2021 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes			Yes		Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes			Yes		Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		24	19	19	26	24	20	28	26	22	25	29
Penetrated Low		17	15	15	20	20	18	25	19	21	21	19
Scenario Percentage		71%	79%	79%	77%	83%	90%	89%	73%	95%	84%	66%
Avg Max Decline		7.84%	7.90%	6.60%	6.10%	5.76%	6.54%	6.78%	6.76%	7.43%	7.96%	4.92%
Max Decline		35.28%	24.67%	14.99%	14.49%	13.11%	12.07%	15.99%	20.20%	24.70%	18.19%	11.26%
Avg Days To Max Decline		15	20	16	16	18	16	19	17	19	11	6
Avg Max Increase		-1.28%	-1.98%	-2.55%	-1.64%	-2.04%	-2.44%	-3.31%	-2.36%	-2.60%	-2.83%	-0.63%
Max Increase		-5.48%	-6.43%	-7.78%	-4.24%	-5.63%	-7.05%	-15.17%	-7.56%	-7.60%	-10.79%	-3.55%
Avg Days to Max Increase		5	10	8	8	9	10	13	11	8	8	1
2021 Contract Condition					Yes			Yes	Yes		Yes
Action					Yes			Yes	No		Yes
High	496.25	509.00	536.00	595.00	594.00	609.25	661.75	667.00	644.25	741.25	741.50	654.50
Low	468.25	449.75	489.00	519.00	552.25	540.25	595.25	608.25	559.50	560.50	588.00	583.75
Close/Last	477.50	500.25	530.25	558.25	556.50	607.25	638.75	637.75	581.75	703.50	613.25	650.25