MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for July Wheat(KCBT) as of Nov 09, 2020
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		44	44	44	44	44	44	44	44	44	45	45
Closed Higher		20	25	25	19	20	23	17	19	22	21	16
Exceeded High		13	22	17	10	17	16	9	16	17	12	8
Scenario Percentage		65%	88%	68%	53%	85%	70%	53%	84%	77%	57%	50%
Avg Max Increase		7.97%	6.50%	7.52%	9.58%	12.08%	10.92%	15.14%	10.60%	15.39%	15.59%	8.30%
Max Increase		18.50%	17.57%	23.52%	25.31%	60.93%	39.68%	42.27%	37.83%	41.89%	31.56%	15.69%
Avg Days To Max Increase		17	17	15	14	15	17	18	14	14	16	9
Avg Max Decline		-2.29%	-1.86%	-2.54%	-3.35%	-2.91%	-1.53%	-2.70%	-2.55%	-2.38%	-1.80%	-0.06%
Max Decline		-5.38%	-5.73%	-10.23%	-7.13%	-9.54%	-5.86%	-9.79%	-7.03%	-10.53%	-6.89%	-1.66%
Avg Days to Max Decline		15	8	11	13	7	7	11	7	5	4	2
2020 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes
Action			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		44	44	44	44	44	44	44	44	44	45	45
Closed Lower		24	19	19	25	24	20	27	25	22	24	29
Penetrated Low		17	15	15	19	20	18	24	19	21	20	19
Scenario Percentage		71%	79%	79%	76%	83%	90%	89%	76%	95%	83%	66%
Avg Max Decline		7.84%	7.90%	6.60%	6.27%	5.76%	6.54%	6.55%	6.76%	7.43%	8.03%	4.92%
Max Decline		35.28%	24.67%	14.99%	14.49%	13.11%	12.07%	15.99%	20.20%	24.70%	18.19%	11.26%
Avg Days To Max Decline		15	20	16	17	18	16	19	17	19	12	6
Avg Max Increase		-1.28%	-1.98%	-2.55%	-1.64%	-2.04%	-2.44%	-3.41%	-2.36%	-2.60%	-2.57%	-0.63%
Max Increase		-5.48%	-6.43%	-7.78%	-4.24%	-5.63%	-7.05%	-15.17%	-7.56%	-7.60%	-10.79%	-3.55%
Avg Days to Max Increase		5	10	8	9	9	10	14	11	8	7	1
2020 Contract Condition		Yes					Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes					Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Not Yet
High	523.25	477.00	449.75	465.75	466.00	502.00	519.00	500.00	509.25	514.00	488.50	476.75
Low	473.75	430.75	419.00	432.75	438.00	439.75	478.25	446.75	427.25	467.75	438.75	416.50
Close/Last	474.75	433.25	446.50	449.00	461.25	501.25	480.00	460.25	499.50	488.00	470.50	435.50