MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for July Wheat(KCBT) as of Oct 20, 2019
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		43	43	43	43	43	43	43	43	43	44	44
Closed Higher		20	24	24	18	19	23	17	18	22	21	16
Exceeded High		13	21	16	9	16	16	9	15	17	12	8
Scenario Percentage		65%	88%	67%	50%	84%	70%	53%	83%	77%	57%	50%
Avg Max Increase		7.97%	6.60%	7.25%	9.25%	12.61%	10.92%	15.14%	11.11%	15.39%	15.40%	7.97%
Max Increase		18.50%	17.57%	23.52%	25.31%	60.93%	39.68%	42.27%	37.83%	41.89%	31.56%	15.12%
Avg Days To Max Increase		17	16	14	14	15	17	18	14	14	15	8
Avg Max Decline		-2.29%	-1.80%	-2.55%	-3.21%	-2.89%	-1.53%	-2.70%	-2.30%	-2.38%	-1.80%	-0.06%
Max Decline		-5.38%	-5.73%	-10.23%	-7.13%	-9.54%	-5.86%	-9.79%	-7.03%	-10.53%	-6.89%	-1.66%
Avg Days to Max Decline		15	8	11	13	8	7	11	7	5	4	2
2019 Contract Condition							Yes				Yes
Action							No				Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		43	43	43	43	43	43	43	43	43	44	44
Closed Lower		23	19	19	25	24	19	26	25	21	23	28
Penetrated Low		16	15	15	19	20	17	23	19	20	19	19
Scenario Percentage		70%	79%	79%	76%	83%	89%	88%	76%	95%	83%	68%
Avg Max Decline		8.12%	7.90%	6.60%	6.27%	5.76%	6.28%	6.53%	6.76%	7.07%	7.76%	4.77%
Max Decline		35.28%	24.67%	14.99%	14.49%	13.11%	12.07%	15.99%	20.20%	24.70%	18.19%	11.26%
Avg Days To Max Decline		16	20	16	17	18	16	19	17	18	11	6
Avg Max Increase		-1.31%	-1.98%	-2.55%	-1.64%	-2.04%	-2.33%	-3.44%	-2.36%	-2.72%	-2.64%	-0.63%
Max Increase		-5.48%	-6.43%	-7.78%	-4.24%	-5.63%	-7.05%	-15.17%	-7.56%	-7.60%	-10.79%	-3.55%
Avg Days to Max Increase		5	10	8	9	9	10	15	11	8	8	1
2019 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes	No	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes
High	613.00	640.00	576.50	574.25	554.25	545.00	535.50	528.50	461.50	450.00	490.00	497.00
Low	533.50	562.25	538.25	532.75	508.75	511.25	511.50	450.75	427.75	390.50	382.00	439.00
Close/Last	605.75	581.25	550.00	539.50	521.50	512.50	519.00	453.25	437.75	394.00	473.00	451.50