MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for July Wheat(KCBT) as of Jan 01, 2016
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		39	39	39	39	39	39	39	39	39	40	40
Closed Higher		20	21	23	18	18	19	15	17	20	19	15
Exceeded High		13	19	16	9	15	14	8	14	15	11	7
Scenario Percentage		65%	90%	70%	50%	83%	74%	53%	82%	75%	58%	47%
Avg Max Increase		7.97%	6.93%	7.25%	9.25%	12.59%	10.82%	16.43%	11.58%	15.86%	16.55%	8.20%
Max Increase		18.50%	17.57%	23.52%	25.31%	60.93%	39.68%	42.27%	37.83%	41.89%	31.56%	15.69%
Avg Days To Max Increase		17	17	14	14	15	18	20	14	13	17	10
Avg Max Decline		-2.29%	-1.72%	-2.55%	-3.21%	-3.00%	-1.52%	-2.96%	-1.96%	-2.02%	-1.76%	-0.22%
Max Decline		-5.38%	-5.73%	-10.23%	-7.13%	-9.54%	-5.86%	-9.79%	-5.67%	-10.53%	-6.89%	-1.66%
Avg Days to Max Decline		15	7	11	13	8	8	12	7	3	4	2
2015 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes			Yes
Action		No		Yes	Yes	No			Yes			Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		39	39	39	39	39	39	39	39	39	40	40
Closed Lower		19	18	16	21	21	19	24	22	19	21	25
Penetrated Low		13	14	12	16	18	17	21	17	18	18	16
Scenario Percentage		68%	78%	75%	76%	86%	89%	88%	77%	95%	86%	64%
Avg Max Decline		8.71%	7.93%	6.60%	6.74%	5.39%	6.28%	6.37%	6.51%	6.74%	7.51%	4.88%
Max Decline		35.28%	24.67%	14.99%	14.49%	13.11%	12.07%	15.99%	20.20%	24.70%	18.19%	11.26%
Avg Days To Max Decline		14	19	14	19	18	16	19	18	18	11	7
Avg Max Increase		-1.29%	-1.81%	-2.65%	-1.52%	-1.87%	-2.33%	-3.32%	-2.32%	-2.62%	-2.19%	-0.63%
Max Increase		-5.48%	-6.43%	-7.78%	-4.09%	-5.63%	-7.05%	-15.17%	-7.56%	-7.60%	-7.05%	-3.55%
Avg Days to Max Increase		4	10	8	9	8	10	14	11	7	8	1
2015 Contract Condition			Yes				Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
Action			Yes				Yes	Yes		Yes	Not Yet
High	699.00	674.00	646.00	610.75	636.50	703.75	646.75	584.75	584.50	593.00	564.50	593.25
Low	630.00	624.75	554.00	552.75	570.00	617.75	543.50	527.50	522.75	489.50	485.50	496.25
Close/Last	637.75	646.00	559.25	597.75	635.50	635.75	546.25	546.00	563.75	499.00	498.75	593.25