MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for July Wheat(KCBT) as of Jan 01, 2009
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	33	33
Closed Higher		17	18	17	15	14	17	13	14	16	16	12
Exceeded High		12	16	12	8	12	13	7	11	12	9	5
Scenario Percentage		71%	89%	71%	53%	86%	76%	54%	79%	75%	56%	42%
Avg Max Increase		8.23%	6.51%	5.81%	9.06%	13.64%	11.11%	15.69%	11.46%	17.13%	16.58%	5.48%
Max Increase		18.50%	16.40%	23.52%	25.31%	60.93%	39.68%	42.27%	37.83%	41.89%	31.56%	8.53%
Avg Days To Max Increase		16	16	11	14	17	19	19	14	15	19	9
Avg Max Decline		-2.21%	-1.55%	-1.85%	-3.26%	-2.71%	-1.59%	-3.38%	-1.43%	-2.22%	-1.52%	-0.37%
Max Decline		-5.38%	-5.73%	-4.24%	-7.13%	-9.54%	-5.86%	-9.79%	-5.67%	-10.53%	-6.89%	-1.66%
Avg Days to Max Decline		14	8	11	13	8	9	14	6	4	3	3
2008 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes				Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No				Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	33	33
Closed Lower		15	14	15	17	18	14	19	18	16	17	21
Penetrated Low		10	10	11	13	15	13	16	15	15	15	13
Scenario Percentage		67%	71%	73%	76%	83%	93%	84%	83%	94%	88%	62%
Avg Max Decline		6.39%	7.28%	5.84%	5.81%	4.50%	5.65%	5.36%	6.27%	5.73%	7.09%	4.54%
Max Decline		17.44%	14.39%	11.68%	11.21%	13.11%	11.76%	13.14%	20.20%	12.05%	18.19%	7.76%
Avg Days To Max Decline		14	21	15	19	17	16	20	19	19	12	7
Avg Max Increase		-1.72%	-1.81%	-2.18%	-1.50%	-1.64%	-1.86%	-3.30%	-2.59%	-2.61%	-2.27%	-0.31%
Max Increase		-5.48%	-6.43%	-6.20%	-3.91%	-5.63%	-5.93%	-15.17%	-7.56%	-7.60%	-7.05%	-1.73%
Avg Days to Max Increase		5	12	9	11	7	10	14	12	7	8	1
2008 Contract Condition									Yes	Yes	Yes
Action									Yes	Yes	Not Yet
High	580.00	600.00	702.00	704.50	802.00	856.00	989.00	1320.00	1300.00	1050.00	887.00	990.00
Low	547.00	557.00	577.00	649.50	675.00	774.00	812.50	939.00	966.25	837.50	782.00	784.50
Close/Last	565.00	594.50	689.00	693.00	789.25	820.25	945.00	1090.00	980.00	842.00	802.00	883.00