MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for May Wheat(KCBT) as of May 17, 2024
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		37	43	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		11	21	23	27	24	18	19	24	16	22	25
Exceeded High		9	16	15	24	16	14	16	17	10	16	18
Scenario Percentage		82%	76%	65%	89%	67%	78%	84%	71%	63%	73%	72%
Avg Max Increase		17.39%	12.65%	11.09%	6.82%	7.73%	7.77%	10.95%	10.32%	16.70%	11.80%	8.65%
Max Increase		50.46%	40.52%	29.39%	20.30%	17.58%	20.09%	51.63%	42.06%	45.60%	42.53%	16.64%
Avg Days To Max Increase		17	19	15	17	16	19	15	17	16	12	8
Avg Max Decline		-2.00%	-1.27%	-1.98%	-1.93%	-2.29%	-2.96%	-3.54%	-1.84%	-2.23%	-4.05%	-1.49%
Max Decline		-10.19%	-6.62%	-8.38%	-12.37%	-10.64%	-7.98%	-10.31%	-7.65%	-11.00%	-12.33%	-10.07%
Avg Days to Max Decline		4	6	9	8	12	12	10	8	11	9	1
2024 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes									Yes
Action		Yes	No									Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		37	43	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		26	22	21	18	20	27	26	21	29	23	20
Penetrated Low		23	21	17	14	16	24	20	18	28	13	12
Scenario Percentage		88%	95%	81%	78%	80%	89%	77%	86%	97%	57%	60%
Avg Max Decline		8.93%	8.25%	7.92%	8.57%	7.82%	7.79%	7.31%	7.27%	6.88%	6.92%	3.50%
Max Decline		18.54%	19.07%	35.92%	25.11%	20.09%	19.06%	17.38%	12.26%	16.16%	13.84%	7.43%
Avg Days To Max Decline		14	14	16	19	19	16	19	16	17	11	7
Avg Max Increase		-1.69%	-2.45%	-1.08%	-1.81%	-3.19%	-1.86%	-2.38%	-3.01%	-3.64%	-2.72%	-1.12%
Max Increase		-4.96%	-13.55%	-5.35%	-5.72%	-7.88%	-5.28%	-7.16%	-6.86%	-15.97%	-8.76%	-4.82%
Avg Days to Max Increase		7	7	6	10	8	10	10	11	12	7	3
2024 Contract Condition				Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action				Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Not Yet
High	862.75	874.00	918.00	844.00	758.00	705.00	677.25	680.00	643.50	633.00	605.25	660.50
Low	738.00	767.25	778.75	727.25	677.50	646.25	602.25	623.00	591.50	556.75	551.50	560.50
Close/Last	768.50	787.50	831.00	737.50	678.75	649.25	647.50	644.00	620.25	587.25	585.25	622.75