MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for May Wheat(KCBT) as of Oct 06, 2023
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		37	43	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		10	20	24	28	25	18	19	24	17	21	25
Exceeded High		8	16	16	25	16	14	16	17	11	15	16
Scenario Percentage		80%	80%	67%	89%	64%	78%	84%	71%	65%	71%	64%
Avg Max Increase		17.50%	12.65%	10.90%	6.78%	7.73%	7.77%	10.95%	10.32%	15.79%	10.46%	6.82%
Max Increase		50.46%	40.52%	29.39%	20.30%	17.58%	20.09%	51.63%	42.06%	45.60%	42.53%	14.67%
Avg Days To Max Increase		16	19	16	18	16	19	15	17	18	12	6
Avg Max Decline		-2.11%	-1.27%	-1.88%	-1.87%	-2.29%	-2.96%	-3.54%	-1.84%	-2.16%	-4.04%	-1.51%
Max Decline		-10.19%	-6.62%	-8.38%	-12.37%	-10.64%	-7.98%	-10.31%	-7.65%	-11.00%	-12.33%	-10.07%
Avg Days to Max Decline		4	6	9	9	12	12	10	8	11	10	1
2023 Contract Condition				Yes	Yes						Yes
Action				Yes	Yes						Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		37	43	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		27	23	20	17	19	27	26	21	28	24	20
Penetrated Low		24	22	16	13	15	24	20	18	27	13	11
Scenario Percentage		89%	96%	80%	76%	79%	89%	77%	86%	96%	54%	55%
Avg Max Decline		8.87%	8.11%	7.64%	8.36%	7.86%	7.65%	6.76%	6.71%	6.95%	6.73%	3.13%
Max Decline		18.54%	19.07%	35.92%	25.11%	20.09%	19.06%	17.38%	12.26%	16.16%	13.84%	7.43%
Avg Days To Max Decline		14	13	15	18	19	16	18	16	18	11	6
Avg Max Increase		-1.78%	-2.35%	-0.97%	-1.66%	-3.11%	-1.65%	-2.42%	-2.88%	-3.74%	-2.72%	-0.75%
Max Increase		-4.96%	-13.55%	-5.35%	-5.72%	-7.88%	-5.28%	-7.16%	-6.86%	-15.97%	-8.76%	-2.79%
Avg Days to Max Increase		7	6	6	10	8	10	10	11	12	7	1
2023 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes
Action		Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Not Yet
High	1326.25	1194.25	1007.25	919.50	999.25	1027.75	983.75	892.75	881.50	909.75	896.50	902.00
Low	1080.50	961.25	829.75	813.50	865.75	914.00	878.50	818.75	800.25	807.75	772.50	769.50
Close/Last	1165.00	962.50	887.75	910.75	979.50	971.25	893.00	882.25	871.75	812.75	877.75	807.25