MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for May Wheat(KCBT) as of Jan 21, 2022
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		35	43	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		9	19	22	27	25	18	21	24	17	20	24
Exceeded High		7	15	14	24	16	14	17	17	10	15	17
Scenario Percentage		78%	79%	64%	89%	64%	78%	81%	71%	59%	75%	71%
Avg Max Increase		17.90%	12.71%	10.81%	6.37%	7.33%	7.77%	10.53%	10.32%	13.73%	10.77%	7.40%
Max Increase		50.46%	40.52%	29.39%	16.40%	17.58%	20.09%	51.63%	42.06%	45.60%	42.53%	16.64%
Avg Days To Max Increase		16	19	15	18	16	19	16	17	19	12	7
Avg Max Decline		-0.95%	-1.40%	-1.40%	-1.91%	-2.23%	-2.96%	-3.41%	-1.84%	-2.36%	-3.32%	-1.45%
Max Decline		-5.34%	-6.62%	-8.38%	-12.37%	-10.64%	-7.98%	-10.31%	-7.65%	-11.00%	-9.06%	-10.07%
Avg Days to Max Decline		3	6	9	9	11	12	9	8	12	8	1
2021 Contract Condition				Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes			Yes
Action				Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes			Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		35	43	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		26	24	22	18	19	27	24	21	28	25	21
Penetrated Low		23	23	17	14	15	23	18	19	26	14	13
Scenario Percentage		88%	96%	77%	78%	79%	85%	75%	90%	93%	56%	62%
Avg Max Decline		8.58%	8.41%	8.17%	8.71%	7.37%	7.54%	6.61%	6.27%	7.01%	7.18%	3.60%
Max Decline		18.54%	19.89%	35.92%	25.11%	20.09%	19.06%	17.38%	12.26%	16.16%	13.84%	7.43%
Avg Days To Max Decline		14	14	15	17	19	16	19	18	17	11	6
Avg Max Increase		-1.66%	-2.18%	-1.25%	-2.03%	-3.15%	-1.72%	-2.58%	-2.77%	-3.46%	-2.58%	-0.63%
Max Increase		-4.96%	-13.55%	-5.78%	-6.90%	-7.88%	-5.28%	-7.16%	-6.86%	-15.97%	-8.76%	-2.79%
Avg Days to Max Increase		7	6	6	11	8	10	11	12	12	6	1
2021 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes				Yes			Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes				Yes			Yes	Not Yet
High	520.75	513.00	491.75	502.75	531.00	591.50	591.00	608.25	663.00	664.00	639.75	734.75
Low	477.50	458.00	462.25	441.75	481.75	513.25	548.00	537.00	592.00	608.25	553.00	553.50
Close/Last	505.00	471.50	470.75	493.75	524.75	553.75	553.00	606.25	641.50	633.75	575.75	698.25