MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for May Wheat(KCBT) as of Nov 09, 2020
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		34	42	44	44	44	44	44	44	44	44	44
Closed Higher		9	19	21	26	24	18	20	23	17	20	23
Exceeded High		7	15	13	23	15	14	16	16	10	15	17
Scenario Percentage		78%	79%	62%	88%	63%	78%	80%	70%	59%	75%	74%
Avg Max Increase		17.90%	12.71%	10.12%	6.09%	7.16%	7.77%	10.59%	10.74%	13.73%	11.14%	7.70%
Max Increase		50.46%	40.52%	29.39%	16.40%	17.58%	20.09%	51.63%	42.06%	45.60%	42.53%	16.64%
Avg Days To Max Increase		16	19	15	17	15	19	15	17	19	12	7
Avg Max Decline		-0.95%	-1.40%	-1.32%	-1.89%	-2.18%	-2.96%	-3.47%	-1.63%	-2.36%	-3.32%	-1.45%
Max Decline		-5.34%	-6.62%	-8.38%	-12.37%	-10.64%	-7.98%	-10.31%	-7.65%	-11.00%	-9.06%	-10.07%
Avg Days to Max Decline		3	6	9	9	9	12	9	9	12	8	1
2020 Contract Condition					Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes
Action					Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		34	42	44	44	44	44	44	44	44	44	44
Closed Lower		25	23	22	18	19	26	24	21	27	24	21
Penetrated Low		22	22	17	14	15	22	18	19	25	14	14
Scenario Percentage		88%	96%	77%	78%	79%	85%	75%	90%	93%	58%	67%
Avg Max Decline		8.68%	8.51%	8.17%	8.71%	7.37%	7.75%	6.61%	6.27%	6.78%	7.20%	3.72%
Max Decline		18.54%	19.89%	35.92%	25.11%	20.09%	19.06%	17.38%	12.26%	16.16%	13.84%	7.43%
Avg Days To Max Decline		14	14	15	17	19	16	19	18	17	11	7
Avg Max Increase		-1.54%	-2.31%	-1.25%	-2.03%	-3.15%	-1.73%	-2.58%	-2.77%	-3.56%	-2.58%	-0.95%
Max Increase		-4.96%	-13.55%	-5.78%	-6.90%	-7.88%	-5.28%	-7.16%	-6.86%	-15.97%	-8.76%	-4.82%
Avg Days to Max Increase		7	6	6	11	8	10	11	12	12	6	2
2020 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes					Yes	Yes		Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes					Yes	Yes		Yes
High	547.00	554.00	520.75	471.00	441.25	457.50	459.25	495.25	511.75	493.50	505.75	507.75
Low	451.25	510.50	467.75	420.75	408.75	423.75	430.25	431.50	470.75	439.00	420.00	460.50
Close/Last	534.50	516.50	469.00	424.00	437.50	440.75	455.00	494.25	472.50	453.25	493.00	482.25