MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for May Wheat(KCBT) as of Oct 20, 2019
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		33	41	43	43	43	43	43	43	43	43	43
Closed Higher		9	19	21	25	23	17	19	23	17	19	23
Exceeded High		7	15	13	22	14	13	15	16	10	14	17
Scenario Percentage		78%	79%	62%	88%	61%	76%	79%	70%	59%	74%	74%
Avg Max Increase		17.90%	12.71%	10.12%	6.15%	6.79%	7.41%	11.06%	10.74%	13.73%	11.72%	7.70%
Max Increase		50.46%	40.52%	29.39%	16.40%	17.58%	20.09%	51.63%	42.06%	45.60%	42.53%	16.64%
Avg Days To Max Increase		16	19	15	17	14	19	15	17	19	12	7
Avg Max Decline		-0.95%	-1.40%	-1.32%	-1.84%	-2.17%	-2.79%	-3.48%	-1.63%	-2.36%	-3.08%	-1.45%
Max Decline		-5.34%	-6.62%	-8.38%	-12.37%	-10.64%	-7.98%	-10.31%	-7.65%	-11.00%	-9.06%	-10.07%
Avg Days to Max Decline		3	6	9	10	9	12	10	9	12	9	1
2019 Contract Condition			Yes						Yes
Action			Yes						No

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		33	41	43	43	43	43	43	43	43	43	43
Closed Lower		24	22	21	18	19	26	24	20	26	24	20
Penetrated Low		21	21	16	14	15	22	18	18	24	14	13
Scenario Percentage		88%	95%	76%	78%	79%	85%	75%	90%	92%	58%	65%
Avg Max Decline		8.21%	8.30%	8.46%	8.71%	7.37%	7.75%	6.61%	6.01%	6.76%	7.20%	3.62%
Max Decline		17.61%	19.89%	35.92%	25.11%	20.09%	19.06%	17.38%	12.26%	16.16%	13.84%	7.43%
Avg Days To Max Decline		13	15	16	17	19	16	19	18	17	11	6
Avg Max Increase		-1.57%	-2.40%	-1.29%	-2.03%	-3.15%	-1.73%	-2.58%	-2.67%	-3.60%	-2.58%	-0.66%
Max Increase		-4.96%	-13.55%	-5.78%	-6.90%	-7.88%	-5.28%	-7.16%	-6.86%	-15.97%	-8.76%	-2.79%
Avg Days to Max Increase		6	6	6	11	8	10	11	11	12	6	2
2019 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	No	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes
High	635.00	621.00	612.75	648.75	581.25	568.75	546.75	535.25	526.75	520.50	454.00	443.50
Low	574.50	526.75	525.25	562.75	535.25	524.50	495.50	499.25	499.75	440.25	418.25	383.50
Close/Last	607.25	542.75	606.25	585.75	548.25	531.75	511.25	500.75	508.75	444.50	430.00	386.25