MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for May Wheat(KCBT) as of Jan 01, 2019
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		32	40	42	42	42	42	42	42	42	42	42
Closed Higher		9	18	21	25	23	17	19	22	17	19	23
Exceeded High		7	14	13	22	14	13	15	16	10	14	17
Scenario Percentage		78%	78%	62%	88%	61%	76%	79%	73%	59%	74%	74%
Avg Max Increase		17.90%	13.11%	10.12%	6.15%	6.79%	7.41%	11.06%	10.74%	13.73%	11.72%	7.70%
Max Increase		50.46%	40.52%	29.39%	16.40%	17.58%	20.09%	51.63%	42.06%	45.60%	42.53%	16.64%
Avg Days To Max Increase		16	20	15	17	14	19	15	17	19	12	7
Avg Max Decline		-0.95%	-1.46%	-1.32%	-1.84%	-2.17%	-2.79%	-3.48%	-1.63%	-2.36%	-3.08%	-1.45%
Max Decline		-5.34%	-6.62%	-8.38%	-12.37%	-10.64%	-7.98%	-10.31%	-7.65%	-11.00%	-9.06%	-10.07%
Avg Days to Max Decline		3	7	9	10	9	12	10	9	12	9	1
2018 Contract Condition		Yes			Yes				Yes	Yes		Yes
Action		Yes			No				Yes	Yes		Yes

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		32	40	42	42	42	42	42	42	42	42	42
Closed Lower		23	22	20	17	18	25	23	20	25	23	19
Penetrated Low		20	21	15	13	14	22	17	18	23	13	12
Scenario Percentage		87%	95%	75%	76%	78%	88%	74%	90%	92%	57%	63%
Avg Max Decline		8.46%	8.30%	8.33%	8.64%	7.41%	7.75%	6.29%	6.01%	6.45%	6.82%	3.75%
Max Decline		17.61%	19.89%	35.92%	25.11%	20.09%	19.06%	17.38%	12.26%	16.16%	13.84%	7.43%
Avg Days To Max Decline		14	15	15	17	18	16	18	18	16	11	6
Avg Max Increase		-1.54%	-2.40%	-1.43%	-1.90%	-3.17%	-1.73%	-2.43%	-2.67%	-3.66%	-2.54%	-0.48%
Max Increase		-4.96%	-13.55%	-5.78%	-6.90%	-7.88%	-5.28%	-7.16%	-6.86%	-15.97%	-8.76%	-2.79%
Avg Days to Max Increase		7	6	6	10	8	10	10	11	12	7	1
2018 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes
Action			Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	No			Not Yet
High	531.00	575.50	619.50	537.00	490.50	476.25	464.00	453.75	485.50	528.75	548.50	528.75
Low	489.25	495.25	530.75	453.00	457.50	445.25	435.00	423.75	434.50	469.75	456.00	466.75
Close/Last	501.75	575.25	532.75	467.75	474.00	448.50	444.00	441.00	482.00	522.25	467.25	518.50