MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for May Wheat(KCBT) as of Dec 30, 2016
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		30	38	40	40	40	40	40	40	40	40	40
Closed Higher		8	18	21	23	22	17	18	20	15	19	21
Exceeded High		6	14	13	21	14	13	14	14	9	14	14
Scenario Percentage		75%	78%	62%	91%	64%	76%	78%	70%	60%	74%	67%
Avg Max Increase		19.60%	13.11%	10.12%	6.29%	6.79%	7.41%	10.91%	10.57%	14.70%	11.13%	6.82%
Max Increase		50.46%	40.52%	29.39%	16.40%	17.58%	20.09%	51.63%	42.06%	45.60%	42.53%	14.67%
Avg Days To Max Increase		18	20	15	17	14	19	15	18	21	11	7
Avg Max Decline		-1.27%	-1.46%	-1.32%	-1.73%	-2.17%	-2.79%	-3.65%	-1.61%	-2.54%	-3.08%	-1.74%
Max Decline		-5.34%	-6.62%	-8.38%	-12.37%	-10.64%	-7.98%	-10.31%	-7.65%	-11.00%	-9.06%	-10.07%
Avg Days to Max Decline		4	7	9	10	9	12	10	10	13	9	1
2016 Contract Condition		Yes			Yes				Yes		Yes
Action		No			Yes				No		Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		30	38	40	40	40	40	40	40	40	40	40
Closed Lower		22	20	18	17	17	23	22	20	25	21	19
Penetrated Low		19	19	14	13	13	20	17	18	23	12	12
Scenario Percentage		86%	95%	78%	76%	76%	87%	77%	90%	92%	57%	63%
Avg Max Decline		8.32%	7.92%	8.58%	8.64%	7.56%	8.17%	6.29%	6.01%	6.45%	6.77%	3.56%
Max Decline		17.61%	19.89%	35.92%	25.11%	20.09%	19.06%	17.38%	12.26%	16.16%	13.84%	7.43%
Avg Days To Max Decline		13	13	14	17	19	17	18	18	16	10	6
Avg Max Increase		-1.51%	-2.49%	-1.18%	-1.90%	-3.15%	-1.77%	-2.43%	-2.67%	-3.66%	-2.51%	-0.48%
Max Increase		-4.96%	-13.55%	-5.78%	-6.90%	-7.88%	-5.28%	-7.16%	-6.86%	-15.97%	-8.76%	-2.79%
Avg Days to Max Increase		6	6	5	10	8	11	10	11	12	6	1
2016 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes
Action			Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes
High	607.75	647.50	647.50	551.25	531.00	544.50	525.00	506.50	492.00	483.50	490.50	497.75
Low	538.25	546.75	534.00	502.75	490.75	495.00	476.75	474.50	462.50	448.50	447.25	442.50
Close/Last	546.75	647.50	535.25	511.50	526.25	520.00	483.75	478.75	482.25	457.50	476.25	465.25