MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for May Wheat(KCBT) as of Jan 01, 2016
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		29	37	39	39	39	39	39	39	39	39	39
Closed Higher		7	18	21	22	22	17	18	19	15	18	21
Exceeded High		6	14	13	20	14	13	14	14	9	13	15
Scenario Percentage		86%	78%	62%	91%	64%	76%	78%	74%	60%	72%	71%
Avg Max Increase		19.60%	13.11%	10.12%	6.43%	6.79%	7.41%	10.91%	10.57%	14.70%	12.27%	7.82%
Max Increase		50.46%	40.52%	29.39%	16.40%	17.58%	20.09%	51.63%	42.06%	45.60%	42.53%	16.64%
Avg Days To Max Increase		18	20	15	17	14	19	15	18	21	11	8
Avg Max Decline		-1.27%	-1.46%	-1.32%	-1.76%	-2.17%	-2.79%	-3.65%	-1.61%	-2.54%	-2.77%	-1.65%
Max Decline		-5.34%	-6.62%	-8.38%	-12.37%	-10.64%	-7.98%	-10.31%	-7.65%	-11.00%	-9.06%	-10.07%
Avg Days to Max Decline		4	7	9	10	9	12	10	10	13	9	1
2015 Contract Condition				Yes		Yes	Yes				Yes
Action				No		Yes	Yes				Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		29	37	39	39	39	39	39	39	39	39	39
Closed Lower		22	19	17	17	16	22	21	20	24	21	18
Penetrated Low		19	18	13	13	12	19	16	18	22	12	11
Scenario Percentage		86%	95%	76%	76%	75%	86%	76%	90%	92%	57%	61%
Avg Max Decline		8.32%	7.90%	8.93%	8.64%	7.46%	8.37%	6.29%	6.01%	6.63%	6.96%	3.42%
Max Decline		17.61%	19.89%	35.92%	25.11%	20.09%	19.06%	17.38%	12.26%	16.16%	13.84%	7.43%
Avg Days To Max Decline		13	14	15	17	18	18	18	18	17	10	5
Avg Max Increase		-1.51%	-2.46%	-1.24%	-1.90%	-3.33%	-1.61%	-2.41%	-2.67%	-3.46%	-2.51%	-0.60%
Max Increase		-4.96%	-13.55%	-5.78%	-6.90%	-7.88%	-5.28%	-7.16%	-6.86%	-15.97%	-8.76%	-2.79%
Avg Days to Max Increase		6	6	5	10	9	11	10	11	12	6	1
2015 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes		Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes
Action		Yes	Yes		Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes		Not Yet
High	850.00	753.75	706.75	682.50	655.50	617.50	641.50	707.25	645.75	580.00	579.25	589.50
Low	745.75	709.25	639.25	634.25	561.25	557.75	574.25	614.50	539.25	521.75	516.25	483.75
Close/Last	745.75	709.25	647.50	655.50	564.75	601.50	641.00	631.50	542.75	539.50	559.25	490.25