MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for May Wheat(KCBT) as of Jan 01, 2014
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		27	35	37	37	37	37	37	37	37	37	37
Closed Higher		7	18	20	21	21	16	18	19	14	16	20
Exceeded High		6	14	13	19	13	12	14	14	8	11	14
Scenario Percentage		86%	78%	65%	90%	62%	75%	78%	74%	57%	69%	70%
Avg Max Increase		19.60%	13.11%	10.12%	6.53%	5.96%	7.17%	10.91%	10.57%	14.00%	12.93%	7.98%
Max Increase		50.46%	40.52%	29.39%	16.40%	15.19%	20.09%	51.63%	42.06%	45.60%	42.53%	16.64%
Avg Days To Max Increase		18	20	15	17	13	19	15	18	19	12	8
Avg Max Decline		-1.27%	-1.46%	-1.32%	-1.82%	-1.99%	-2.68%	-3.65%	-1.61%	-2.98%	-2.56%	-1.66%
Max Decline		-5.34%	-6.62%	-8.38%	-12.37%	-10.64%	-7.98%	-10.31%	-7.65%	-11.00%	-9.06%	-10.07%
Avg Days to Max Decline		4	7	9	11	9	12	10	10	15	9	1
2013 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes				Yes			Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes				No			Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		27	35	37	37	37	37	37	37	37	37	37
Closed Lower		20	17	16	16	16	21	19	18	23	21	17
Penetrated Low		17	16	12	12	12	18	14	17	21	12	11
Scenario Percentage		85%	94%	75%	75%	75%	86%	74%	94%	91%	57%	65%
Avg Max Decline		8.45%	7.80%	9.46%	9.25%	7.46%	8.02%	5.52%	6.07%	6.45%	6.96%	3.42%
Max Decline		17.61%	19.89%	35.92%	25.11%	20.09%	19.06%	13.35%	12.26%	16.16%	13.84%	7.43%
Avg Days To Max Decline		13	13	15	18	18	17	17	18	16	10	5
Avg Max Increase		-1.53%	-2.36%	-1.30%	-1.98%	-3.33%	-1.66%	-2.49%	-2.43%	-3.19%	-2.51%	-0.60%
Max Increase		-4.96%	-13.55%	-5.78%	-6.90%	-7.88%	-5.28%	-7.16%	-6.81%	-15.97%	-8.76%	-2.79%
Avg Days to Max Increase		6	6	5	11	9	11	11	11	10	6	1
2013 Contract Condition						Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
Action						Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
High	778.25	810.00	954.75	943.75	956.50	950.00	967.00	932.75	861.50	858.50	778.75	803.50
Low	674.00	690.00	801.50	885.50	888.00	894.25	893.50	826.00	795.00	732.75	723.00	704.50
Close/Last	728.75	800.50	909.50	911.00	935.75	925.75	922.25	840.50	849.25	752.75	726.75	798.00