MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for May Wheat(KCBT) as of Dec 30, 2011
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		25	33	35	35	35	35	35	35	35	35	35
Closed Higher		6	16	18	20	20	16	17	18	14	16	19
Exceeded High		5	12	12	18	13	12	13	14	8	11	13
Scenario Percentage		83%	75%	67%	90%	65%	75%	76%	78%	57%	69%	68%
Avg Max Increase		19.67%	13.84%	10.55%	6.71%	5.96%	7.17%	11.56%	10.57%	14.00%	12.18%	6.92%
Max Increase		50.46%	40.52%	29.39%	16.40%	15.19%	20.09%	51.63%	42.06%	45.60%	42.53%	14.67%
Avg Days To Max Increase		18	20	15	18	13	19	17	18	19	12	7
Avg Max Decline		-1.55%	-1.26%	-1.29%	-1.67%	-1.99%	-2.68%	-3.19%	-1.61%	-2.98%	-2.56%	-1.76%
Max Decline		-5.34%	-6.62%	-8.38%	-12.37%	-10.64%	-7.98%	-10.31%	-7.65%	-11.00%	-9.06%	-10.07%
Avg Days to Max Decline		4	6	9	10	9	12	10	10	15	9	1
2011 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		25	33	35	35	35	35	35	35	35	35	35
Closed Lower		19	17	16	15	15	19	18	17	21	19	16
Penetrated Low		16	16	12	11	11	16	13	16	19	10	10
Scenario Percentage		84%	94%	75%	73%	73%	84%	72%	94%	90%	53%	63%
Avg Max Decline		8.88%	7.80%	9.46%	9.22%	7.16%	7.92%	4.96%	5.82%	6.16%	6.44%	2.79%
Max Decline		17.61%	19.89%	35.92%	25.11%	20.09%	19.06%	13.35%	12.26%	16.16%	12.75%	5.54%
Avg Days To Max Decline		13	13	15	17	17	18	16	18	17	11	5
Avg Max Increase		-1.33%	-2.36%	-1.30%	-1.66%	-3.23%	-1.53%	-2.49%	-2.42%	-3.23%	-2.93%	-0.71%
Max Increase		-4.96%	-13.55%	-5.78%	-6.90%	-7.88%	-5.28%	-7.16%	-6.81%	-15.97%	-8.76%	-2.79%
Avg Days to Max Increase		7	6	5	10	9	12	10	12	10	7	1
2011 Contract Condition				Yes			Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes
Action				No			No			Yes	Not Yet	Yes
High	585.00	565.25	716.00	814.00	794.00	798.75	844.50	871.75	957.00	1001.50	932.75	966.00
Low	540.25	515.25	540.00	699.00	707.25	703.25	710.00	756.75	846.75	851.00	765.00	854.25
Close/Last	540.25	541.00	709.50	707.50	725.50	794.50	754.75	859.50	935.75	912.50	908.00	893.00