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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for March Wheat(KCBT) as of Jul 11, 2025
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Tested Years   41 44 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   21 21 14 24 22 29 25 19 20 23 18
Exceeded High   17 11 11 18 14 26 14 16 16 15 12
Scenario Percentage   81% 52% 79% 75% 64% 90% 56% 84% 80% 65% 67%
Avg Max Increase   11.38% 13.43% 17.19% 12.95% 12.61% 7.17% 9.62% 7.28% 10.98% 10.16% 6.11%
Max Increase   28.55% 32.89% 59.08% 44.59% 30.20% 20.70% 19.00% 19.78% 51.59% 43.16% 30.73%
Avg Days To Max Increase   16 16 15 18 16 16 19 16 15 10 8
Avg Max Decline   -2.03% -2.07% -2.64% -1.87% -1.66% -1.68% -2.70% -2.36% -3.36% -1.22% -0.34%
Max Decline   -9.33% -5.63% -10.90% -7.25% -5.79% -5.38% -10.93% -5.26% -9.31% -3.76% -4.89%
Avg Days to Max Decline   5 7 6 6 7 4 13 13 8 4 2
2025 Contract Condition   Yes Yes       Yes     Yes Yes  
Action   Yes No       Yes     Yes Yes  
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Tested Years   41 44 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   20 22 31 21 21 16 20 26 25 22 27
Penetrated Low   19 19 28 20 15 14 17 23 19 14 15
Scenario Percentage   95% 86% 90% 95% 71% 88% 85% 88% 76% 64% 56%
Avg Max Decline   5.94% 8.21% 8.43% 9.10% 9.36% 8.87% 8.51% 7.60% 7.58% 6.14% 3.87%
Max Decline   14.40% 15.14% 18.98% 19.54% 36.28% 25.24% 22.02% 20.74% 17.44% 13.39% 9.09%
Avg Days To Max Decline   19 19 16 16 18 20 16 15 18 15 7
Avg Max Increase   -3.07% -3.45% -2.09% -2.91% -1.12% -2.12% -2.67% -1.82% -2.52% -2.55% -1.60%
Max Increase   -23.13% -19.01% -6.85% -16.08% -5.18% -6.08% -8.47% -6.36% -7.70% -7.08% -5.67%
Avg Days to Max Increase   9 9 6 8 5 10 5 8 9 9 3
2025 Contract Condition       Yes Yes Yes   Yes Yes     Yes
Action       Yes Yes No   Yes Yes     Yes
High 640.00 706.50 786.25 772.50 631.75 598.25 617.50 638.25 591.25 571.50 590.75 630.50
Low 586.00 606.75 673.50 604.25 565.25 541.00 569.00 575.00 538.25 535.00 537.75 558.00
Close/Last 624.50 683.75 754.75 616.75 580.50 577.75 598.25 583.00 540.75 559.25 579.25 558.25

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