MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for March Wheat(KCBT) as of Oct 20, 2019
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		37	42	43	43	43	43	43	43	43	43	43
Closed Higher		18	21	14	22	21	26	24	19	20	21	19
Exceeded High		14	12	10	17	13	23	12	15	14	14	12
Scenario Percentage		78%	57%	71%	77%	62%	88%	50%	79%	70%	67%	63%
Avg Max Increase		10.75%	15.25%	16.43%	12.98%	11.08%	6.54%	8.82%	6.74%	10.93%	10.30%	3.72%
Max Increase		28.55%	32.89%	59.08%	44.59%	30.20%	15.65%	19.00%	19.78%	51.59%	43.16%	9.90%
Avg Days To Max Increase		16	16	13	18	15	17	16	17	15	11	9
Avg Max Decline		-2.08%	-1.86%	-1.75%	-1.98%	-1.22%	-1.59%	-2.61%	-2.16%	-3.23%	-1.22%	-0.65%
Max Decline		-9.33%	-5.63%	-6.34%	-7.25%	-5.41%	-5.38%	-10.93%	-4.61%	-9.31%	-3.76%	-4.89%
Avg Days to Max Decline		5	6	5	6	6	5	10	13	8	4	3
2019 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes		Yes						Yes
Action		Yes	No		Yes						Not Yet

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		37	42	43	43	43	43	43	43	43	43	43
Closed Lower		19	20	29	21	20	17	19	24	23	22	24
Penetrated Low		18	18	26	19	14	14	15	20	17	13	12
Scenario Percentage		95%	90%	90%	90%	70%	82%	79%	83%	74%	59%	50%
Avg Max Decline		5.85%	8.26%	7.69%	9.28%	10.00%	8.97%	8.15%	8.00%	6.86%	4.89%	3.80%
Max Decline		14.40%	15.14%	18.98%	20.69%	36.28%	25.24%	22.02%	20.74%	17.44%	13.39%	9.09%
Avg Days To Max Decline		20	20	15	17	19	20	17	17	18	15	8
Avg Max Increase		-3.06%	-3.30%	-1.92%	-2.83%	-1.36%	-2.31%	-2.65%	-1.96%	-2.73%	-2.26%	-1.18%
Max Increase		-23.13%	-19.01%	-6.85%	-16.08%	-5.88%	-6.70%	-8.47%	-6.36%	-7.70%	-7.08%	-4.43%
Avg Days to Max Increase		9	10	5	7	5	11	5	9	10	10	4
2019 Contract Condition				Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes
Action				Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	No	Yes		Yes
High	604.00	600.25	629.50	612.50	607.00	644.50	571.50	557.00	533.75	524.50	518.00	513.50
Low	531.50	545.50	564.50	514.00	512.50	549.50	520.50	510.50	482.25	487.25	487.75	432.00
Close/Last	544.75	593.25	600.00	530.25	601.00	575.00	535.25	518.00	500.25	488.75	499.00	441.00