MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for March Wheat(KCBT) as of Jan 01, 2015
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		32	37	38	38	38	38	38	38	38	38	38
Closed Higher		15	20	12	21	20	23	22	18	19	17	17
Exceeded High		11	12	9	16	13	21	11	14	13	12	11
Scenario Percentage		73%	60%	75%	76%	65%	91%	50%	78%	68%	71%	65%
Avg Max Increase		11.31%	15.25%	17.34%	13.34%	11.08%	6.84%	8.00%	6.49%	10.74%	9.91%	3.55%
Max Increase		28.55%	32.89%	59.08%	44.59%	30.20%	15.65%	19.00%	19.78%	51.59%	43.16%	9.90%
Avg Days To Max Increase		14	16	14	19	15	17	16	17	15	10	8
Avg Max Decline		-1.80%	-1.86%	-2.02%	-2.07%	-1.22%	-1.48%	-2.41%	-1.99%	-3.38%	-1.10%	-0.87%
Max Decline		-9.33%	-5.63%	-6.34%	-7.25%	-5.41%	-5.38%	-10.93%	-4.18%	-9.31%	-3.76%	-4.89%
Avg Days to Max Decline		4	6	6	6	6	5	10	13	9	4	3
2014 Contract Condition		Yes			Yes		Yes	Yes				Yes
Action		No			No		Yes	No				Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		32	37	38	38	38	38	38	38	38	38	38
Closed Lower		17	16	26	17	16	15	16	20	19	21	21
Penetrated Low		16	15	23	15	11	12	12	17	14	12	9
Scenario Percentage		94%	94%	88%	88%	69%	80%	75%	85%	74%	57%	43%
Avg Max Decline		5.55%	7.90%	7.55%	8.63%	10.86%	9.53%	8.40%	8.71%	5.79%	4.89%	3.82%
Max Decline		9.33%	13.59%	18.98%	20.69%	36.28%	25.24%	22.02%	20.74%	14.49%	13.39%	9.09%
Avg Days To Max Decline		20	20	15	16	18	21	19	18	16	16	8
Avg Max Increase		-3.18%	-1.94%	-1.98%	-2.72%	-1.27%	-2.27%	-2.66%	-1.85%	-2.51%	-1.86%	-1.17%
Max Increase		-23.13%	-5.83%	-6.85%	-16.08%	-5.88%	-6.70%	-8.47%	-6.36%	-7.70%	-3.79%	-4.43%
Avg Days to Max Increase		8	9	5	7	3	11	5	10	9	9	3
2014 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes		Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes
Action			Yes	Yes		Yes			Yes	Yes	Not Yet
High	820.50	826.25	826.25	797.00	749.00	734.00	747.50	775.50	742.25	716.25	651.00	694.50
Low	770.00	755.75	767.25	721.25	707.75	699.25	694.25	734.25	694.00	632.75	607.75	612.50
Close/Last	771.75	821.00	792.50	725.00	725.50	711.00	740.25	742.25	709.25	640.50	615.50	677.00