MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for March Wheat(KCBT) as of Jan 01, 2008
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years	25	30	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31
Closed Higher	11	16	8	16	16	19	18	16	15	14	14
Exceeded High	9	9	6	12	12	17	9	13	9	10	10
Scenario Percentage	82%	56%	75%	75%	75%	89%	50%	81%	60%	71%	71%
Avg Max Increase	10.77%	13.28%	9.09%	10.96%	9.49%	6.95%	6.95%	5.91%	6.97%	6.92%	2.98%
Max Increase	28.55%	29.24%	25.61%	31.13%	18.30%	12.99%	19.00%	19.78%	15.95%	12.96%	6.60%
Avg Days To Max Increase	14	16	14	19	16	19	15	17	16	9	9
Avg Max Decline	-1.52%	-2.01%	-2.32%	-2.14%	-1.34%	-1.15%	-1.64%	-1.93%	-2.96%	-1.28%	-0.96%
Max Decline	-9.33%	-5.63%	-6.34%	-7.25%	-5.41%	-3.57%	-4.78%	-4.18%	-6.28%	-3.76%	-4.89%
Avg Days to Max Decline	3	6	8	7	6	5	10	11	8	5	3
2007 Contract Condition	Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes
Action	Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes	No	No			Not Yet

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years	25	30	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31
Closed Lower	14	13	23	15	13	12	13	15	16	17	17
Penetrated Low	13	13	20	13	8	9	9	13	11	10	9
Scenario Percentage	93%	100%	87%	87%	62%	75%	69%	87%	69%	59%	53%
Avg Max Decline	5.45%	7.93%	7.66%	7.22%	8.67%	8.44%	7.31%	7.85%	4.79%	4.66%	11.70%
Max Decline	9.33%	13.59%	18.98%	20.69%	18.23%	12.90%	22.02%	20.74%	14.49%	13.39%	35.75%
Avg Days To Max Decline	19	20	14	14	20	23	20	20	15	18	12
Avg Max Increase	-1.84%	-2.10%	-1.79%	-1.56%	-1.76%	-2.46%	-2.01%	-1.92%	-2.31%	-1.83%	-2.31%
Max Increase	-7.16%	-5.83%	-6.85%	-6.13%	-5.88%	-6.70%	-4.61%	-6.36%	-7.70%	-3.79%	-5.31%
Avg Days to Max Increase	7	10	5	6	4	12	5	12	7	10	5
2007 Contract Condition				Yes	Yes				Yes	Yes
Action				Yes	No				Yes	Not Yet
High	480.00	532.00	522.00	542.00	515.00	511.50	567.50	553.75	550.00	511.25	516.00
Low	433.00	453.00	478.00	497.00	461.25	463.75	497.00	517.00	498.00	467.00	474.50
Close/Last	449.00	506.50	518.50	510.50	495.25	502.25	530.00	550.25	509.75	488.75	516.00