MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for December Coffee "C"(ICE) as of Jun 23, 2023
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		23	17	16	22	21	12	18	25	16	21	22
Exceeded High		16	14	10	15	12	9	15	19	15	18	15
Scenario Percentage		70%	82%	63%	68%	57%	75%	83%	76%	94%	86%	68%
Avg Max Increase		14.60%	10.61%	14.35%	17.35%	17.01%	15.01%	9.29%	10.56%	15.55%	15.42%	10.41%
Max Increase		60.95%	23.63%	58.95%	75.81%	102.19%	53.42%	20.58%	38.16%	34.86%	44.71%	27.08%
Avg Days To Max Increase		13	20	19	16	11	15	13	12	15	11	14
Avg Max Decline		-2.15%	-3.75%	-2.86%	-2.39%	-2.40%	-3.44%	-5.40%	-3.34%	-2.80%	-2.14%	-1.20%
Max Decline		-7.62%	-11.73%	-10.40%	-11.13%	-9.79%	-18.36%	-20.13%	-12.33%	-12.69%	-9.64%	-4.93%
Avg Days to Max Decline		7	12	9	5	7	10	11	10	4	5	3
2022 Contract Condition		Yes				Yes			Yes
Action		Yes				Yes			No

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		22	28	29	23	24	33	27	20	29	24	23
Penetrated Low		19	25	23	20	20	29	20	16	22	20	14
Scenario Percentage		86%	89%	79%	87%	83%	88%	74%	80%	76%	83%	61%
Avg Max Decline		8.76%	8.72%	7.52%	11.51%	12.96%	11.19%	9.56%	8.85%	12.23%	10.13%	6.89%
Max Decline		19.81%	20.31%	15.48%	33.87%	27.16%	27.40%	19.83%	22.36%	32.09%	25.29%	13.93%
Avg Days To Max Decline		17	17	17	20	20	17	19	18	14	13	11
Avg Max Increase		-2.50%	-2.43%	-4.01%	-4.10%	-2.93%	-3.95%	-5.12%	-5.80%	-3.40%	-3.15%	-1.13%
Max Increase		-9.34%	-8.94%	-11.74%	-19.50%	-9.15%	-36.22%	-19.40%	-14.83%	-13.39%	-13.90%	-5.00%
Avg Days to Max Increase		5	8	14	10	10	5	10	10	9	9	2
2022 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes
Action			Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	No		Yes	Yes	Not Yet
High	245.00	240.90	253.40	233.90	235.55	233.25	240.60	232.25	242.95	236.40	226.45	183.40
Low	220.20	218.45	227.60	206.65	213.70	202.10	215.10	192.30	202.75	210.85	167.75	150.45
Close/Last	223.15	231.65	227.90	223.70	221.30	230.80	227.05	213.80	235.25	221.55	177.70	167.70