MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for September Coffee "C"(ICE) as of Dec 07, 2022
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		24	23	24	24	18	18	22	20	12	19	25
Exceeded High		18	21	18	16	14	12	16	10	9	15	15
Scenario Percentage		75%	91%	75%	67%	78%	67%	73%	50%	75%	79%	60%
Avg Max Increase		15.46%	12.64%	12.69%	17.17%	11.34%	19.71%	20.00%	21.77%	14.88%	9.72%	7.10%
Max Increase		54.56%	58.99%	42.09%	62.80%	24.35%	72.37%	122.35%	121.24%	43.01%	23.92%	21.36%
Avg Days To Max Increase		18	16	17	13	20	17	17	11	16	13	11
Avg Max Decline		-1.88%	-1.54%	-1.95%	-1.36%	-3.74%	-3.49%	-2.72%	-3.10%	-5.56%	-5.38%	-1.14%
Max Decline		-8.13%	-6.04%	-8.89%	-4.17%	-11.67%	-11.11%	-11.79%	-10.13%	-16.43%	-13.46%	-3.35%
Avg Days to Max Decline		8	6	8	6	13	6	6	8	12	9	4
2022 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes		Yes				Yes			Yes
Action		Yes	Yes		Yes				Yes			Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		21	22	21	21	27	27	23	25	33	26	20
Penetrated Low		17	20	17	19	23	22	21	21	29	17	11
Scenario Percentage		81%	91%	81%	90%	85%	81%	91%	84%	88%	65%	55%
Avg Max Decline		9.18%	8.37%	7.81%	8.92%	8.89%	8.39%	12.15%	12.47%	12.18%	10.10%	6.63%
Max Decline		22.31%	17.16%	21.60%	20.79%	16.50%	16.67%	33.77%	26.26%	30.78%	18.13%	14.05%
Avg Days To Max Decline		16	14	16	15	17	18	21	20	16	15	13
Avg Max Increase		-2.30%	-1.98%	-4.02%	-2.60%	-2.41%	-4.39%	-4.39%	-3.51%	-4.36%	-4.59%	-2.94%
Max Increase		-6.26%	-9.42%	-14.78%	-9.41%	-9.42%	-13.68%	-21.21%	-9.64%	-39.51%	-11.96%	-8.01%
Avg Days to Max Increase		10	4	10	7	5	14	10	7	6	8	4
2022 Contract Condition				Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
Action				Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Not Yet
High	204.25	219.35	245.90	246.90	242.70	256.90	236.10	237.15	234.05	241.75	236.05	246.90
Low	187.55	196.40	202.75	221.65	219.50	229.70	208.95	214.25	202.40	217.10	194.60	205.90
Close/Last	198.50	207.75	230.25	224.50	233.60	230.05	225.70	221.90	231.45	230.10	217.20	239.10